My Mock Draft 2018

I wasn’t planning to do a Mock Draft since my lack of knowledge going down the draft means I can’t really back up my thoughts or give me much of an educated view. However, since I’ve read up a little more and the hype is so real, I thought I might as well have a go. There’s so many possible scenarios that I have about as much chance as being right as the next guy or girl.

I say I’m doing a mock draft, what I’m actually doing is looking into the first round of the draft and looking into the plotlines and scenarios and maybe making a few trade predictions. I’m going to cover 1 through 12 in some depth and then attempt to rattle off the remaining 20 picks with a few notes here and there.

Overview:

To try to analyse round one I’m going to look into the first three rounds a little bit and paint the picture.

I’ve labelled each pick with the team and which pick it is in relation to what that team has:

Pick	Round 1	#	..	Round 2	#	..	Round 3	#
1	CLE	1		CLE	3		BUF	5
2	NYG	1		NYG	2		NYG	3
3	NYJ	1		CLE	4		IND	5
4	CLE	2		IND	2		HOU	1
5	DEN	1		IND	3		NYG	4
6	IND	1		TB	2		SF	3
7	TB	1		CHI	2		DEN	3
8	CHI	1		DEN	2		NYJ	2
9	SF	1		OAK	2		MIA	3
10	OAK	1		MIA	2		SF	4
11	MIA	1		NE	3		OAK	3
12	BUF	1		WAS	2		GB	3
13	WAS	1		GB	2		CIN	3
14	GB	1		CIN	2		KC	2
15	ARI	1		ARI	2		ARI	3
16	BAL	1		LAC	2		HOU	2
17	LAC	1		IND	4		DAL	3
18	SEA	1		DAL	2		DET	3
19	DAL	1		DET	2		BAL	3
20	DET	1		BAL	2		LAC	3
21	CIN	1		BUF	3		CAR	3
22	BUF	2		KC	1		KC	3
23	NE	1		CAR	2		LAR	1
24	CAR	1		BUF	4		CAR	4
25	TEN	1		TEN	2		TEN	3
26	ATL	1		ATL	2		ATL	3
27	NO	1		SF	2		NO	2
28	PIT	1		PIT	2		PIT	3
29	JAX	1		JAX	2		JAX	3
30	MIN	1		MIN	2		MIN	3
31	NE	2		NE	4		NE	5
32	PHI	1		CLE	5		BUF	6

From this here’s a table which maybe a little more clearly shows the number of picks each team has in each of the first 3 rounds and their totals over the first 3 rounds:

Team	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Total
ARI	1	1	1	3
ATL	1	1	1	3
BAL	1	1	1	3
BUF	2	2	2	6
CAR	1	1	2	4
CHI	1	1	0	2
CIN	1	1	1	3
CLE	2	3	0	5
DAL	1	1	1	3
DEN	1	1	1	3
DET	1	1	1	3
GB	1	1	1	3
HOU	0	0	2	2
IND	1	3	1	5
JAX	1	1	1	3
KC	0	1	2	3
LAC	1	1	1	3
LAR	0	0	1	1
MIA	1	1	1	3
MIN	1	1	1	3
NE	2	2	1	5
NO	1	0	1	2
NYG	1	1	2	4
NYJ	1	0	1	2
OAK	1	1	1	3
PHI	1	0	0	1
PIT	1	1	1	3
SF	1	1	2	4
SEA	1	0	0	1
TB	1	1	0	2
TEN	1	1	1	3
WAS	1	1	0	2

A few interesting snapshots:

• ·         Buffalo have multiple picks in all 3 rounds.
• ·         Cleveland has 4 of the opening 35 picks but only one more between then and round 4.
• ·         Houston’s first pick in the draft is 3.04.
• ·         Indianapolis has 3 picks in round 2 including 2.04 and 2.05.
• ·         Kansas City has no 1^st rounder.
• ·         The Rams are the last team to get a pick at 3.23.
• ·         New England has two 1^st and two 2^nd round picks.
• ·         Philadelphia and Seattle have round 1 picks but nothing else until round 4.

As you can see, for some teams it’s a feast, for others it’s a famine. As my earlier article on the Bills tries to say, there are a lot of possible scenarios in the top few picks and the distribution of picks may force a few teams to make moves. Similarly other teams have the capital behind them to move up (the Bills being the prime example for that).

My Mock Draft. Picks 1-12:

#1 Cleveland

Cleveland will pick at number one (there’s no chance of a trade here) but already there’s a few ways they could go. Option 1 would be to take the best player available which to many people is Saquon Barkley. The other thing to consider is that the Browns pick again at #4 but before then the RB and QB needy Giants are at #2.

With 4 main players at QB the Browns can afford to wait, but to have their pick of the 4 and not risk the Jets at #3 (or even the Giants) picking their favourite they may choose option 2 and go for their preferred QB. I think option 2 is universally the more likely road they will go down and will set them up at #4 to react to whatever the Giants do at #2.

As to which QB it will be, I have no idea. There has been hype regarding all 4 options but for me it’s between two. Josh Rosen is the most NFL ready and while that’s a great plus point, Tyrod Taylor is good enough to buy their rookie some time so it may be worth chasing the upside. Josh Allen has the upside but is the biggest risk and isn’t really the kind of player who should be going at #1 overall. Baker Mayfield similarly shouldn’t be going at #1 so I think Sam Darnold may be the choice.

Prediction: Sam Darnold, QB, USC.

#2 New York Giants

The Giants will hold a lot of the keys in this year’s draft. They have a number of needs, the most pressing of which to me is the offensive line although a lot of people seem to think Running Back is a bigger concern. To me, without a stronger Offensive Line the RB picked and indeed any QB picked would be a waste as they just won’t have the protection in front of them. Quenton Nelson is the player they need. The Guard would be a 10 year starter and put them 2/5 of the way to having the O-Line that offence needs having brought in Nate Solder in free agency.

My favourite option would be if the Bills could work their way up (via Indianapolis) to trade up to 2 and select Josh Rosen and allow Nelson to be the Giants pick at #6 but that will require a lot of work from the Bills to make it happen.

They could go for a quarterback early and bring in Eli Manning’s successor early while they have an early draft pick. It would allow them to have their choice of the 3 remaining QBs and cause mayhem behind as the Bills will potentially be scrambling to take the 4^th pick off the Browns in order to jump the Broncos.

However, to me the most likely option is that with Cleveland going for Darnold, they will take Saquon Barkley and hope to use the rest of the draft to build an offensive line that can allow him and Eli to work. He is a superb talent and they won’t want to pass on the best guy in the draft when he is also a major positional need. They have to make sure they get the rest of the draft right but it would be a decent start.

Prediction: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State.

#3 New York Jets

The Jets made their move very early on, trading with the Colts to move from 6 to 3 at the expense of 2 2^nd round picks this year and a further one next year. It was a move that signals they only have eyes of a quarterback and needed to get ahead of the Broncos and force the Browns to use their first pick to get their choice. It was bold and quite possibly way too much, but they are in position now to get one of the top 2 QBs on their list.

I don’t believe that Darnold will be the Bills favourite option so the Browns choosing him will allow their preferred option to fall. Who that player is depends on how they plan to use McCown and Bridgewater this season. If they want a rookie to start very soon they will likely go for Rosen, but if they’re willing to wait a while they may choose the upside and go for Allen. Either way, I’m backing them to draft a Josh here.

I think the tandem they have and the money they spent on McCown gives them the chance to wait. They have so many holes on that roster that it’s going to take more than 1 draft and 1 QB to fix it so maybe they’re best taking a development option and aiming for the upside. This basically screams Josh Allen who may have his critics and is a risky proposition, but provides enough reward to be worth the investment.

Prediction: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming.

#4 Cleveland

The Browns return at #4 and with their QB sorted and Barkley now off the board they have another set of options. They will no doubt be getting calls from the moment the Giants don’t select a QB, and as mentioned earlier, the line to the Bills may be a hot one. A trade to move down to 12 and acquire pick 22 and a host of other picks could really benefit them and with no obvious choice in this situation they may find themselves taking it.

The issue here though is there is still a lot of talent that would fall between #4 and #12. The likes of Bradley Chubb, Quenton  Nelson and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all likely to go in that range and all of those would be of interest to the Browns. It would take quite an offer for them to fall so far and the Bills may have to make a bridge trade with someone like Indianapolis or Chicago to make it happen but I imagine they will be pushing for it.

I think it’ll be close but ultimately they won’t be able to come up with a palatable deal in the short time frame they will have and opt for Bradley Chubb. With him and Miles Garrett chasing after Quarterbacks for a number of years to come will be a daunting prospect for opposition O-Lines and exciting for those in Cleveland.

Prediction: Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State.

#5 – Denver

The Broncos at 5 will probably know what they plan to do once the Giants have decided whether they want Barkley or not. What that plan will be I have no idea and I imagine if the scenario plays out as I have it, the Bills will be pushing them to change those plans.

The option to trade is there. Some analysts see them trading up to 2 with the Giants to get their QB of choice, however I think that’s unlikely when Case Keenum is good for at least two years and the capital they’d have to give up wouldn’t be worth it. They could trade down with the Bills but knowing the Bills need a QB will push the price right up and maybe too far to the Bills to accept.

If that is the case then the possible options are Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield if they really want a QB; Denzel Ward if they want a Corner-back to replace Aqib Talib or possibly Quenton Nelson if they want to strengthen their Offensive line. They are three good options and if a trade come from a team between 6 and 8 they might consider it. However, to me the ability to trade Aqib Talib for a 5^th round pick and replace him with Denzel Ward is a move which they really ought to make.

Prediction: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State.

#6 – Indianapolis

The Colts have a lot of needs and thankfully a decent number of picks to at least make a start. The status of Andrew Luck won’t be certain by draft day so that may not enter the thought process at this stage. What they do need however is some improvements on their Offensive Line to help protect Luck and indeed whichever Running Back they opt to go with. Rather handily the best Guard in the draft and arguably the 2^nd best player in the draft is still sat there for them at #6 and if they’ve resisted the lure of a trade with the Bills (or any other team for that matter) then he will be sat there waiting.

It’s not exactly a foregone conclusion though. They need help on defence too and a Linebacker would not go amiss here. Tremaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith both provide great options but considering the variety of defensive needs they have, the perfect offensive line addition will be too much of a lure to resist.

Prediction: Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame.

#7 Tampa Bay

The Bucs need a Running Back badly but unless Barkley falls I think they may be willing to wait on their guy. The Bucs main needs otherwise are probably on defense and at this stage there should be a multitude of options open to them.

Chubb and Nelson, like Barkley, will likely be chosen if they fall to #7 but ruling those out of this equation it’s probably between two players: Marcus Davenport and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Davenport sorts out a position of need and although Chubb was the better player, he’d still be a massive up[tick for that defense.

Fitzpatrick can play anywhere along the defense and his versatility would be a great weapon for Tampa. Trading for Jason Pierre-Paul perhaps quells the thirst for a Defensive end so early so it makes the highly talented Fitzpatrick feel like the more acceptable pick.

Prediction: Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama.

#8 – Chicago

Chicago is in the market for a line-backer, and this draft order plays very much into their hands. Really there are two players this decision is likely to be between and a reasonably straight forward conclusion to that debate. Tremaine Edmunds and Roquan Smith would both fill their need at Line-backer and both have high draft ability and would improve their defense further. The Bears look to have a sneaky good defense this year and this move will only add fuel to that fire of thought.

For me Tremaine Edmunds is the better option and indeed has the backing of many other experts. He should be going ahead of Smith and without even considering other positions; I think this is the way the Bears are going to go.

Prediction: Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech.

#9 – San Francisco

The 49ers are an intriguing prospect in this draft spot as they really could go anywhere with this pick. Okay, they don’t need a Quarterback and I think they’re happy to roll with Kittle at Tight End but after that every position could do with some strength and depth.

Defense should probably be their priority since they have enough offensive weapons to get the job done. Derwin James is a top Safety who would command that position for years to come. Comparisons to Cam Chancellor are high praise indeed, however, with Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt in that position on the depth chart they may consider looking at another position.

With Reuben Foster looking unlikely to see the outside world for a few years they are going to need someone to replace him and using a high pick on a Line-backer would make a lot of sense. With Edmunds going one spot earlier the obvious next option is Roquan Smith who would not solve all their problems, but would be a very strong start on the way to doing so.

They could go very left field and pick a wide receiver like Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton here but I think there’s enough good quality wide receivers that they can wait until later for that. They could also look at an offensive lineman or even trading up for Quenton Nelson but at this position with the talent available I’d argue one of the top players still available fits a serious need and so Roquan Smith is my choice here.

Prediction: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia.

#10 – Oakland

Soon to be Las Vegas, the Raiders are going to want someone to start building up with. They already look like a charity game veterans team on offence but it’s not that side of the ball that needs the most work. Their defense was awful last season and with needs at Defensive Tackle, Cornerback and Linebacker they will struggle to find anyone who won’t make them better. 

Edmunds, Smith and Ward are already off the board and they won’t even contemplate Chubb falling to 10 so really it all points to one player. Marcus Davenport is perhaps the next best Defensive End after Chubb and with Khalil Mack could create something serious to work with.

They could dabble in the offensive line or wide receivers but really, Davenport or a faller from the above picked players is where I see this going.

Prediction: Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA.

#11 – Miami

In this scenario Josh Rosen and Baker Mayfield are waiting and can become the heir apparent to Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill recently re-structured his contract to help the Dolphins in cap space but it ties him to them until 2020 so a replacement QB being drafted already could leave them on the hook for a fair bit of money.

With the likes of Smith, Edmunds and Fitzpatrick all gone they might look to another position of need which is their Offensive line. They’ve had a change at Centre and have a few guys still growing on that line and could do with some more pieces to prepare them for having a decent QB or run game. Mike McGlinchey stands out. He’s the best Tackle in this year’s draft and with Ja’Wuan James becoming a free agent at the end of the year it’d be a good cover move too.

An option at Defensive Tackle could be Vita Vea since Ndamukong Suh left for the Rams. The Dolphins still feel happy with their defensive line (although some experts would beg to differ) and so they might well leave defensive additions until later unless a Linebacker falls their way. Derwin James will still be on the board here too.

Really it’s between Mayfield, Rosen and McGlinchey and since they’ve been lambasted in recent years for using first round draft picks on Offensive lineman I think they change the trend and end up frustrating the Bills and going for Mayfield. I only say Mayfield over Rosen for the upside and because they don't need an instant starter.

Prediction: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma.

#12 – Buffalo

The Bills at this point will be thanking their lucky stars that the player who I believe is the guy they really want ends up falling to them and they didn't have to give up any capital to get him. Josh Rosen makes it to #12 and gives them their QB to challenge McCarron instantly.

However, if they are willing to wait they could better use this pick and either choose a lesser talent later and run with McCarron or pick up a free agent to provide competition (although when the best free agent is Colin Kaepernick that might be difficult). Trading for a QB is an option but having picked up McCarron it’d be a bit of a kick in the teeth to pick up someone with experience as a rival.

If they choose not to go the QB route then their Offensive line may be a good place to start. They traded away Cordy Glenn to get up to 12 and someone like Will Hernandez or Issiah Wynn might fill the void somewhat.

Rashaan Evans at Line-backer would help with them losing Preston Brown. Vita Vea or Da’Ron Payne would help them improve from 29^th against the run last year. Calvin Ridley would give whoever the quarterback is, a weapon other than Kelvin Benjamin to aim at and with Derwin James still there he could come into their thinking too.

If Rosen is indeed sat there this pick will take no time to come in. No matter what other options are there I think he's their guy and a good option at that.

Prediction: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA.

Picks 13 to 22:

#13 – Washington – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

#14 – Green Bay – Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa

#15 – Arizona – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama.

#16 – Baltimore – Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma.

#17 – Los Angeles Chargers – Derwin James, S, Florida State.

#18 – Seattle – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State.

#19 – Dallas – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU.

#20 – Detroit – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama.

#21 – Cincinnati – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame.

#22 – Buffalo (2) – DJ Moore, WR, Maryland.

To summarize this section you have to consider the fact I’m reaching the limit of my knowledge and there’s every chance a few teams may be ready to trade up or down.

Arizona, Dallas and Buffalo all need Wide Receivers and the Cardinals and Chargers may be looking for Quarter backs but with only Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph left I think they both get faded and teams look to wait before taking a shot at them.

The rest of the picks are reasonable guesses that fill positional needs with talented players.

Picks 23 to 32:

#23 – New England – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama.

#24 – Carolina – Will Hernandez, G, Texas El-Paso.

#25 – Tennessee – Harold Landry, DE, Boston College.

#26 – Atlanta – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida.

#27 – New Orleans – Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State.

#28 – Pittsburgh – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville.

#29 – Jacksonville – Isaah Wynn, G, Georgia.

#30 – Minnesota – Connor Williams, G, Texas.

#31 – New England – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA.

#32 – Philadelphia – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia.

I can see a lot of trades potentially happening here but if they don’t I’ve tried to fit needs without stretching too far. I think the New Orleans pick could be Goedert or Hayden Hurst and Philly could almost pick anybody but really their main need to probably replacing Blount so Michel is an option but maybe someone like Guice would fit better.

So to Recap:

Team	Player
CLE	Sam Darnold, QB, USC.
NYG	Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State.
NYJ	Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming.
CLE	Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State.
DEN	Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State.
IND	Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame.
TB	Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama.
CHI	Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech.
SF	Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia.
OAK	Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA.
MIA	Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma.
BUF	Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA.
WAS	Vita Vea, DT, Washington
GB	Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
ARI	Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama.
BAL	Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma.
LAC	Derwin James, S, Florida State.
SEA	Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State.
DAL	Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU.
DET	Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama.
CIN	Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame.
BUF	DJ Moore, WR, Maryland
NE	Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama.
CAR	Will Hernandez, G, Texas El-Paso.
TEN	Harold Landry, DE, Boston College.
ATL	Taven Bryan, DT, Florida.
NO	Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State.
PIT	Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville.
JAX	Isaah Wynn, G, Georgia.
MIN	Connor Williams, G, Texas.
NE	Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA.
PHI	Sony Michel, RB, Georgia.

Of course there’s no chance this is how it will play out because the number of options is crazy. My Mock draft ended up showing no trades and I think that’s quite possibly the biggest hot take possible in this draft. There’s going to be movement and probably quite high up the order. It’s going to be an exciting day for the prospects, the teams and the fans and quite honestly, I’m hyped to see what happens! The time for hype is nearly over, it’s time to find out the answers.