I’m going to be away this weekend and it’s been a bad week so I’m going to condense everything into a few points which will hopefully give you a starting point.
Bye weeks begin
The Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins have the week off so if you have AP, Reed, Cam, Funchess or McCaffrey then you will have to look to your bench or the waiver wire. As it stands I think any other players from those teams may be droppable although You’d like to hope the Redskins receivers would step up soon and I have a feeling DJ Moore may kick on so may be worth a ticket in the lottery.
Thursday night
Vikings @ Rams
If the NFL were predictable fantasy would be so easy and the whole thing would probably be less fun (but also less infuriating). The predictable thing after last week would be to see the Rams roll over the Vikings who seemed to be caught off guard by Buffalo. I’m not so sure it’s going to go that way though. Call it the law of averages or regression towards the mean but the Vikings won’t be that bad again and with the Rams now a few defensive pieces down (mainly both CBs) the signs are there.
Sunday Early Games
NYJ@JAX, MIA@NE, PHI@TEN, HOU@IND, BUF@GB, DET@DAL, TB@CHI, CIN@ATL.
This is the week to fire up Green Bay and hope they aren’t the surprise disappointment. The Lions should be able to carry on (or even Kerryon) their recent good work as they go to Dallas to play a Cowboys team still struggling. Look for Cincinnati to fire away at Atlanta who are losing defenders quicker than Clay Matthews gets penalties. With the exception of the Jets vs Jags and Bucs vs Bears, the other games have the potential to be shootouts. Miami have made it difficult to predict who will score their points but again looking across the season I think this week may be the turn of Drake to be the big hitter.
Mid-Afternoon Slate
SEA@ARI, CLE@OAK, NO@NYG, SF@LAC
Two rather underwhelming games for fantasy open the afternoon slate but the following two looks juicy. Fire up your Saints and Chargers and the charger defence should be the play of the week. It’s hard to say any more than to avoid overthinking these games.
SNF and MNF
BAL@PIT, KC@DEN
An AFC North Rivalry and an AFC West divisional matchup find themselves in the Prime Time slots and they are probably the hardest to predict how the game will go. The Ravens have a defence the Steelers could only dream only and the Steelers have an offence the Ravens could only dream of. Everyone is playable in that game but also anyone could bust.
The Chiefs are as high power as you get this year but the Broncos Defence is still pretty resolute. This game may be all about whether Keenum and the Broncos off nice can keep pace with the Chiefs. Lindsey and/or Royce Freeman may decide this one, boom and win, bust and lose.
Injuries
Keep an eye as there’s plenty going down with Jake Butt being the latest. However, people like Devonte Freeman are returning but may need a week to get back into the groove.
Thursday, 27 September 2018
Saturday, 22 September 2018
Week 3 Thought Bubbles
As the weeks go by the patterns begin to emerge and the predictions get easier to make. However, this is the NFL and it also increases the likelihood that your confidence is misplaced. With that in mind, here are my thought bubbles for week 3. This is going to be a bit shorter this week due to something of a hectic life schedule but if you want any deeper thoughts; message me on twitter using @FFThinker or find me in the NFL Fantasy Football Discussion Group.
Saints @ Falcons
This could be a shootout. The Saints defence hasn’t lived up to the hype they created last season while the Falcons are still getting to grips with losing Neal and Jones for the season. Kamara should have another great week and the Brees/Thomas connection should still be on fire. Ted Ginn is a decent deeper option. Matt Ryan has options in front of him but as usual expect Julio to star, even with an injury concern. Sanu seems to have dropped off and Ridley is taking over as the WR2 and he will have flex appeal going forwards. The Saints defence has been reasonable against the run to Tevin Coleman isn’t a guaranteed big scorer with Freeman out but if you’re in a deep league and in need of an option then Ito Smith in the old Coleman role could be worth a go.
Saints @ Falcons
This could be a shootout. The Saints defence hasn’t lived up to the hype they created last season while the Falcons are still getting to grips with losing Neal and Jones for the season. Kamara should have another great week and the Brees/Thomas connection should still be on fire. Ted Ginn is a decent deeper option. Matt Ryan has options in front of him but as usual expect Julio to star, even with an injury concern. Sanu seems to have dropped off and Ridley is taking over as the WR2 and he will have flex appeal going forwards. The Saints defence has been reasonable against the run to Tevin Coleman isn’t a guaranteed big scorer with Freeman out but if you’re in a deep league and in need of an option then Ito Smith in the old Coleman role could be worth a go.
49ers @ Chiefs
This is another game with 2 strong offences and weak defences. The 49ers are in rebuild but a number of their building blocks are nursing injury concerns. Goodwin should play and if he does it’s a juicy matchup if he doesn’t then Garcon, Pettis and Kittle get a bump. The defence is also nursing some injuries with Witherspoon and Tartt among many requiring late calls so Mahomes should continue his hot start. That also means Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce should have nice days and I’d expect Kareem Hunt to have his day in the sun.
Raiders @ Dolphins
Two teams I’ve argued have a lack of quality and while the Dolphins have started 2-0 I can’t say I’m convinced. The Raiders still have a number of troubles but the game against Denver proved not all hope is lost. Amari Cooper looks to have improved this offseason and Derek Carr isn’t doing badly. Nelson and Bryant are TD upside only plays and I wouldn’t want a ticket in that lottery, I’d rather roll with Jared Cook. The Dolphins might have Devante Parker back which could open up the field for Stills and the rest of the receiving corps. Tannehill is a decent streaming option at QB and maybe this will be the game where Kenyan Drake lives up to his ADP.
Bills @ Vikings
The Bills dumpster fire continues to burn and the flames show no sign of dying down against the Vikings. Cousins, Thielin, Diggs and Rudolph can all be fired up confidently. Dalvin Cook won’t play so Latavious Murray becomes a solid starter. Shady McCoy still has a few issues and can’t do things on his own, Allen is still finding his feet and being knocked off them frequently. Leave Benjamin and Jones well alone against this defence and if you have the Vikings DST you should be able to sit back and enjoy.
Colts @ Eagles
This game could be difficult to call. Wentz returning is a big boost for the Eagles but how ready is he? He may be a little rusty and with Jeffrey, Ajayi and Sproles all ruled out it’s seemingly up to Agholor and Ertz to do the work with Corey Clement doing a lot of the running. The Colts have a better defence than they are used to and Andrew Luck may get a fair few chances to show he’s truly back. TY Hilton looks set to play and Ryan Grant has proved a decent WR2 on the team. Jack Doyle missing makes Eric Ebron a big play but the running backs are probably a miss as the merry-go-round between Wilkins, Hines and Mack shows no signs of settling, even if Mack misses again.
Packers @ Redskins
Aaron Rodgers is trending towards playing which means you play him. If he can beat teams on one leg, having two will be frightening. The Skins had a great opening day win but last week was much less exciting and the Packers should be able to handle it. Adams, Cobb and Allison all have value and maybe Jimmy Graham can find a few catches. He remains a TD dependant play though. The Packers running backs get further clouded with the return of Aaron Jones so until things settle down I wouldn’t advise taking a chance. The Redskins need their pass attack to get going as Alex Smith only seems to be clicking with Jordan Reed right now. Crowder, Doctson and Richardson have all disappointed their owners so far but this may give all 3 a chance to make up for lost time.
Bengals @ Panthers
This is another game I think will be close to call. With Joe Mixon missing for the Bengals, Gio Bernard will get the workload and Mark Walton will see some action. AJ Green, Tyler Boyd and John Ross will likely see the bulk of the work so Andy Dalton is a decent QB stream, I mean even Tyler Eifert at TE could be handy. The Panthers should still be slight favourites and it’s usually dependant on Cam Newton playing well so he’s the key. Funchess and Moore now have a chance to show their abilities and McCaffrey will be likely to see plenty of the ball.
Titans @ Jaguars
Marcus Mariota remains questionable and with Blaine Gabbert at QB I’m not sure if I give the likes of Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews and Jonnu Smith any hope at all. Derrick Henry has been struggling so far this season and with an injury concern over his head, Dion Lewis is maybe the one piece worth playing. Meanwhile, the Jags finally showed they can work without Fournette as Bortles and Cole put it together. With Fournette likely to be back he will be an option and the defence will still have to keep an eye on Cole. Moncrief, Westbrook and ASJ aren’t such enticing plays with Fournette on the field but the Jags seem to have an answer for most setbacks right now.
Broncos @ Ravens
After talking about some offensive matchups early on this is the opposite with two strong defences and quite lethargic offences. Phillip Lindsey has had a monster start to his career and outshone Royce Freeman. Sanders has dominated Thomas in the receiving role and Courtland Sutton is still working his way into the equation. If you go by matchups they aren’t a great set of options against the Ravens but if CJ Mosely misses the game things do improve. The Ravens need Alex Collins to be given a chance and Crabtree to find a better connection with Flacco. They really need a new offence (coaches included) in my view but that’s a discussion for another time. Both DSTs should be great plays.
Giants @ Texans
If the Giants had a decent offensive line they’d be a dangerous team, but against the defensive line of the Texans I fear for Eli’s safety as well as his production. His receivers may struggle to get see targets if he’s on his back but OBJ always seems to find a way to be relevant. Saquon Barkely may see a lot of the play but again, he may not get much help. The Texans do look better when Will Fuller is on the field with Hopkins and this should boost them both and Deshaun Watson. The Texans DST looks a decent play this week and maybe now Watson can begin paying back the people who drafted him so highly.
Chargers @ Rams
The battle of Los Angeles could be an interesting game to watch. The Chargers defence isn’t living up to the hype although losing Joey Bosa may be a big part of that. With that in mind, Melvin Gordon has had to take a lot on and so far has delivered while Ekeler has been a very capable and relevant backup. Rivers and Allen haven’t hit the heights yet but Allen is a weekly must play regardless. The remaining receiving options probably require fading. The Rams have a bunch of options in the receiving game and I seem to struggle to pick the right one each week although each has upside. This week Gurley may be an even stronger play than usual.
Bears @ Cardinals
The Bears have had the beastly defence so far but what do you expect when you add Khalil Mack. Trubisky is still a bit sheepish and the passing game is yet to click but Robinson is showing signs of life and this may be a good matchup for Trey Burton. That being said the Arizona offence is having a lot of problems. DJ isn’t able to carry the whole team and Sam Bradford just isn’t performing. Josh Rosen will be in before too long but it already looks like a season of damage and limitation for the Cardinals. Larry Fitz should play this week but he may not be 100%, but a 50% fit Fitz is probably better than all their other options at 100%. It’s sad to see and I can’t see their defence digging them out of any holes either.
Cowboys @ Seahawks
Two offences struggling to get things going. The Cowboys have Zeke but he’s been limited with the losses they’ve taken on the offensive line. Dak has been terrible so far but really he hasn’t got a lot to work with. The Seahawks similarly are struggling with a depleted offensive line although that’s been a problem for years. Without Doug Baldwin, Russel Wilson hasn’t got his usual outshot and so Lockett and Marshall are having to pick up what they can and Lockett seems playable on a weekly basis right now although the Cowboys defence does limit his effectiveness. The running backs are still struggling for relevancy but that O-Line will do that.
Patriots @ Lions
The Lions have had a very indifferent start to the season and the Matt Patricia era since leaving New England hasn’t been smooth. They do however have the weapons and a strong passing game so Stafford, Tate and Marvin Jones (if fit) are all good plays. Kenny Golladay has started the season as a surprise star and should have value all season long, this game included. The defence meanwhile is a little shaky still and so the Patriots offensive options are going to be worth playing. Brady, Hogan, Gronk and White should all be strong. If Burkhead could get a clean bill of health he’d be great for this matchup but I still can’t be confident enough in him to play him.
I’ll cover the Monday game on Monday but don’t overthink it. This should be a shootout and all the offensive options should be worth having in your flex.
Hopefully, this should give you some guidance but if you want more specific advice, find me on twitter.
Thursday, 20 September 2018
Thursday Night Thought Bubble
The full thought bubble will be released either tomorrow or Saturday morning but ahead of tonight's game, I thought I'd give a quick overview in a similar way to Monday Maybes. This week the Thursday night game pits two teams I would class as “bottom-dwellers” but who are trending the right direction.
Jets @ Browns
The Jets have surprised a few people (me included) with how the defence seems to have formed itself into a decent unit. During the off-season they seemed to miss all their main targets so used their cap space to bolster the defence and it's showing signs of being a reasonable investment. Couple that with rookies and young guys like Jamal Adams and Darron Lee and there's some promise there. Their DST isn't the "instant discard" I expected it to be and this week against the Browns they may be a decent choice. With the Browns low on fit wide receivers and the fact this is a Thursday night game, there are plenty of things to suggest taking a flier on them if you're in need of a streamer defence.
On offence, the team has looked shaky but still able to get work done. Quincey Enunwa has taken the bulk of the receiving load (which has certainly helped the leagues where I picked him up as a last bench spot option). He's had 13 receptions for 155 yds and a TD to lead the team in fantasy points (remember, I deal in PPR). He's relegated Robby Anderson down the pecking order after he had a fantastic 2017. Anderson seemed to click well with McCown, now though it's Darnold and Enunwa. Anderson is even being outscored by Terrelle Pryor right now and this is even without a reasonable Tight End option. Sam Darnold has done a reasonable job so far of keeping things going but a 3/3 TD/INT ratio opposition defences always seem to have something to feed on.
At Running Back Crowell and Powell have very similar stat lines. Crowell has been getting all the ground yards while Powell has taken a lot of the pass catching. They've been a promising tandem compared to the pre-season expectations and against the Browns, they should have value again.
Jets Predictions:
Sam Darnold - 13pts
Isaiah Crowell - 8pts
Bilal Powell - 11pts
Quincey Enunwa - 15pts
Robby Anderson - 8pts
Terrelle Pryor - 6pts
Chris Herndon - 3pts
Jets DST - 10pts
The Browns meanwhile are off to their best start in years after a tie and a loss. It says all you need to know really. Their defence does look like it has improved drastically, but that is from rock bottom to at least something. Myles Garrett is a beast and they have finally added some extra pieces like Denzel Ward to make their secondary look mean, the defensive line leaves a lot to be desired though. Against the Jets, they have a chance to put up some points, especially on a Monday night and against Sam Darnold.
Tyrod Taylor will always put up fantasy points as a rushing QB even if he's not exactly a fantastic QB. He has 12 rushes for 103 yards and one TD compared to throwing 70 passes of which only 37 so far have been completed for 443 yards and 2 TDS. But 2 interceptions put him in the same 0.500 ratio of TD/INT so the Jets secondary will also have a chance to feed.
The main beneficiary of those 70 targets has been Jarvis Landry with 22, catching 12 for 175 yards. He's missed most of practice this week with a knee injury but should play. He should be fine and with Josh Gordon now in New England, the targets should increase further. His injury may hold him back a bit but it's so hard to not play him. The fact it's a Thursday night game always makes me apprehensive and with Tyrod at QB, it's difficult to see a "big" night. You have to exercise caution with the other receivers in Higgins, Njoku and Callaway likewise but if you're in deep leagues, they may be what you have.
The running back situation remains cloudy. Carlos Hyde has been the guy to own, Duke Johnson has done nothing due to game scripts and Nick Chubb is still bedding in. If Duke gets more pass-catching work then he should come good again but right now they aren't in games where it's a logical option. As a result, if you have Hyde he's probably the way to go, but if you have alternatives, it may be better to fade.
Browns Predictions:
Tyrod Taylor - 16pts
Carlos Hyde - 12pts
Duke Johnson - 6pts
Jarvis Landry - 9pts
Antonio Callaway - 7pts
Rashad Higgins - 6pts
David Njoku - 6pts
Browns DST - 9pts
Jets @ Browns
The Jets have surprised a few people (me included) with how the defence seems to have formed itself into a decent unit. During the off-season they seemed to miss all their main targets so used their cap space to bolster the defence and it's showing signs of being a reasonable investment. Couple that with rookies and young guys like Jamal Adams and Darron Lee and there's some promise there. Their DST isn't the "instant discard" I expected it to be and this week against the Browns they may be a decent choice. With the Browns low on fit wide receivers and the fact this is a Thursday night game, there are plenty of things to suggest taking a flier on them if you're in need of a streamer defence.
On offence, the team has looked shaky but still able to get work done. Quincey Enunwa has taken the bulk of the receiving load (which has certainly helped the leagues where I picked him up as a last bench spot option). He's had 13 receptions for 155 yds and a TD to lead the team in fantasy points (remember, I deal in PPR). He's relegated Robby Anderson down the pecking order after he had a fantastic 2017. Anderson seemed to click well with McCown, now though it's Darnold and Enunwa. Anderson is even being outscored by Terrelle Pryor right now and this is even without a reasonable Tight End option. Sam Darnold has done a reasonable job so far of keeping things going but a 3/3 TD/INT ratio opposition defences always seem to have something to feed on.
At Running Back Crowell and Powell have very similar stat lines. Crowell has been getting all the ground yards while Powell has taken a lot of the pass catching. They've been a promising tandem compared to the pre-season expectations and against the Browns, they should have value again.
Jets Predictions:
Sam Darnold - 13pts
Isaiah Crowell - 8pts
Bilal Powell - 11pts
Quincey Enunwa - 15pts
Robby Anderson - 8pts
Terrelle Pryor - 6pts
Chris Herndon - 3pts
Jets DST - 10pts
The Browns meanwhile are off to their best start in years after a tie and a loss. It says all you need to know really. Their defence does look like it has improved drastically, but that is from rock bottom to at least something. Myles Garrett is a beast and they have finally added some extra pieces like Denzel Ward to make their secondary look mean, the defensive line leaves a lot to be desired though. Against the Jets, they have a chance to put up some points, especially on a Monday night and against Sam Darnold.
Tyrod Taylor will always put up fantasy points as a rushing QB even if he's not exactly a fantastic QB. He has 12 rushes for 103 yards and one TD compared to throwing 70 passes of which only 37 so far have been completed for 443 yards and 2 TDS. But 2 interceptions put him in the same 0.500 ratio of TD/INT so the Jets secondary will also have a chance to feed.
The main beneficiary of those 70 targets has been Jarvis Landry with 22, catching 12 for 175 yards. He's missed most of practice this week with a knee injury but should play. He should be fine and with Josh Gordon now in New England, the targets should increase further. His injury may hold him back a bit but it's so hard to not play him. The fact it's a Thursday night game always makes me apprehensive and with Tyrod at QB, it's difficult to see a "big" night. You have to exercise caution with the other receivers in Higgins, Njoku and Callaway likewise but if you're in deep leagues, they may be what you have.
The running back situation remains cloudy. Carlos Hyde has been the guy to own, Duke Johnson has done nothing due to game scripts and Nick Chubb is still bedding in. If Duke gets more pass-catching work then he should come good again but right now they aren't in games where it's a logical option. As a result, if you have Hyde he's probably the way to go, but if you have alternatives, it may be better to fade.
Browns Predictions:
Tyrod Taylor - 16pts
Carlos Hyde - 12pts
Duke Johnson - 6pts
Jarvis Landry - 9pts
Antonio Callaway - 7pts
Rashad Higgins - 6pts
David Njoku - 6pts
Browns DST - 9pts
Wednesday, 19 September 2018
The Hype Train Station
It’s time to take another trip to the Hype Train Station and see who is on the right track, who might give you a nice journey, who might get a little stuck en route and who isn’t even leaving the station.
Standing Room only - Keelan Cole
The Jags wide receiver might have already produced the catch of the season with the one-handed grab under pressure along the sideline against the Patriots and I think there’s more to come. Cole has some hype pre-season and that gathered steam when Marquise Lee went down. With so many receivers in the mix in Jacksonville, there were a number of trains in the station and the question was which one would set off first. Cole has a monster day on Sunday in the vengeance victory against New England, reeling in 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. The week before he was the teams’ top receiver and that should continue. Any game Fournette missed could be a monster for Cole but even with the bruising running back in the game Cole is a popular alternative outlet for Bortles. Now you know which train to board, get your ticket quickly, he’s not going to be down at 45% owned after this Wednesday's waiver wire processes.
Reservations Recommended - Will Fuller
Fuller returned from injury with quite a bang, although it’s maybe wasn’t as loud as the bang of Deshaun Watson crashing back to earth after last year. Fuller had 8 catches for 113 yards and a TD which even bettered Deandre Hopkins tally. He’s back and the Texans offence will be better for it. The reason I have reservations is that Watson needs to get his head back into the game and get his decision making back on point. The talent is definitely there and I think that whole Texans offence plays better when both h Hopkins and Fuller are in there. Fuller does look like a great option going forwards so a lot of players are going to be heading towards his platform.
Delayed - Royce Freeman
This one pains me as I have a lot of stock in Freeman and I was one of many hyping him during the offseason. The situation was the best for a rookie to fall in to and whoever went there was set to be a great asset. That statement is still factually true but it would appear the player is Phillip Lindsey. Lindsey has had 178 yards from 29 attempts and 3 receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown in his 2 games so far. Meanwhile Freeman (who was often being picked in the 4th or 5th round) has managed 99 yards on 23 attempts and one touchdown. Interestingly he’s yet to catch a ball in his NFL career so even Fullback Andy Janovich is ahead of him in receiving yards. Freeman looked a real talent on film but in play he’s just not lived up to it and Lindsey has surpassed everyone’s expectations. It’ll be hard for the Freeman hype train to get the signal to leave the station again. It’s quite plausible it’ll be declared a failure and dragged back to the depot. Don’t count him out too soon though, there’s still a chance he can break out, as opposed to break down.
Cancelled - Jameson Crowder
Last week I chose someone with a hype train rolling that I said not to get on in Jay Ajayi which I nearly felt vindicated in saying when he went down but of course he returned to get a TD. I’m still not grabbing a ticket but I’ll at least take a picture of the train. This week I’m going to mention a guy who had a hype train all offseason but so far it’s barely left the depot.
Jameson Crowder looked ready to be Alex Smiths new favourite target after his move to Washington and the Fantasy community had high hopes. With how low Jordan Reed, Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson fell most felt he was the guy to own but as it stands, he’s not even released the brakes yet. In 2 games he has a combined 5 catches for 40 yards and no touchdowns while also rushing twice for 29 yards against the Colts. He’s just not clicked with Alex Smith yet and on the evidence, we have so far, it may take a while for him to do so.
The Empty Stock train - OJ Howard
After last week suggesting Enunwa might give you a good journey, this week I’m thinking about grabbing a drinks complimentary ticket so I can get some OJ. OJ Howard looks to be the redzone Tight End for the Buccaneers. With Notorious Fitzmagic at the helm he’s looked a real threat and with 3 catches for 96 yards and a TD after grabbing 54 yards in the opener and leaving Brate with a goose egg, he’s a guy to target. Owned in only 21% of ESPN games he’s may well be out there and if you’re one of those streaming the tight end, he could prove more than just a matchup-based play.
Standing Room only - Keelan Cole
The Jags wide receiver might have already produced the catch of the season with the one-handed grab under pressure along the sideline against the Patriots and I think there’s more to come. Cole has some hype pre-season and that gathered steam when Marquise Lee went down. With so many receivers in the mix in Jacksonville, there were a number of trains in the station and the question was which one would set off first. Cole has a monster day on Sunday in the vengeance victory against New England, reeling in 7 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. The week before he was the teams’ top receiver and that should continue. Any game Fournette missed could be a monster for Cole but even with the bruising running back in the game Cole is a popular alternative outlet for Bortles. Now you know which train to board, get your ticket quickly, he’s not going to be down at 45% owned after this Wednesday's waiver wire processes.
Reservations Recommended - Will Fuller
Fuller returned from injury with quite a bang, although it’s maybe wasn’t as loud as the bang of Deshaun Watson crashing back to earth after last year. Fuller had 8 catches for 113 yards and a TD which even bettered Deandre Hopkins tally. He’s back and the Texans offence will be better for it. The reason I have reservations is that Watson needs to get his head back into the game and get his decision making back on point. The talent is definitely there and I think that whole Texans offence plays better when both h Hopkins and Fuller are in there. Fuller does look like a great option going forwards so a lot of players are going to be heading towards his platform.
Delayed - Royce Freeman
This one pains me as I have a lot of stock in Freeman and I was one of many hyping him during the offseason. The situation was the best for a rookie to fall in to and whoever went there was set to be a great asset. That statement is still factually true but it would appear the player is Phillip Lindsey. Lindsey has had 178 yards from 29 attempts and 3 receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown in his 2 games so far. Meanwhile Freeman (who was often being picked in the 4th or 5th round) has managed 99 yards on 23 attempts and one touchdown. Interestingly he’s yet to catch a ball in his NFL career so even Fullback Andy Janovich is ahead of him in receiving yards. Freeman looked a real talent on film but in play he’s just not lived up to it and Lindsey has surpassed everyone’s expectations. It’ll be hard for the Freeman hype train to get the signal to leave the station again. It’s quite plausible it’ll be declared a failure and dragged back to the depot. Don’t count him out too soon though, there’s still a chance he can break out, as opposed to break down.
Cancelled - Jameson Crowder
Last week I chose someone with a hype train rolling that I said not to get on in Jay Ajayi which I nearly felt vindicated in saying when he went down but of course he returned to get a TD. I’m still not grabbing a ticket but I’ll at least take a picture of the train. This week I’m going to mention a guy who had a hype train all offseason but so far it’s barely left the depot.
Jameson Crowder looked ready to be Alex Smiths new favourite target after his move to Washington and the Fantasy community had high hopes. With how low Jordan Reed, Josh Doctson and Paul Richardson fell most felt he was the guy to own but as it stands, he’s not even released the brakes yet. In 2 games he has a combined 5 catches for 40 yards and no touchdowns while also rushing twice for 29 yards against the Colts. He’s just not clicked with Alex Smith yet and on the evidence, we have so far, it may take a while for him to do so.
The Empty Stock train - OJ Howard
After last week suggesting Enunwa might give you a good journey, this week I’m thinking about grabbing a drinks complimentary ticket so I can get some OJ. OJ Howard looks to be the redzone Tight End for the Buccaneers. With Notorious Fitzmagic at the helm he’s looked a real threat and with 3 catches for 96 yards and a TD after grabbing 54 yards in the opener and leaving Brate with a goose egg, he’s a guy to target. Owned in only 21% of ESPN games he’s may well be out there and if you’re one of those streaming the tight end, he could prove more than just a matchup-based play.
Week Two Takeaways
It’s time for a few week 2 takeaways now. Who is as hot as a rogan josh and who is cooler than a mint yoghurt side. Let’s tuck in, shall we?
Start your Chiefs and Stream against the Steelers:
The Chiefs may have the most powerful offence in the NFL. So far Patrick Mahomes has been the real deal with 584 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions and 10 carries for 39 yards in his opening two games. It’ll be interesting to see how he copes with the Broncos and the Jaguars coming up in his next 3 games. With Hill, Hunt, Watkins and Kelce all able to pitch in at any moment the options they have are ridiculous and the only negative for fantasy is having to predict which will go off each week.
The Steelers meanwhile are looking like a bit of a mess in defence. They still seem shell-shocked and short of leaders since they lost Ryan Shazier. Nobody has stepped up to be a difference maker. TJ Watt is showing promise at LB but there’s a lot of pieces just not performing. They’re a team I’m happy streaming offensive players against for sure.
Florida is 6-0:
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins against all the odds are each 2-0 after 2 games giving Florida a clean sweep of wins so far. Since it’s the only US state I’ve ever set foot in this stat does make me happy and the fact teams starting 2-0 have a better than 60% success rate at making the playoffs, it gives me all the more cause to smile.
The Bills may as well follow Vontae Davis' example:
If you didn’t see it, Vontae Davis retired from the NFL and quit the Bills at halftime of their game against the Chargers. He’s called it “Realising I’m not up to it any more” but perhaps with the workload that the Bills were going to get and the beatings they would receive he just didn’t feel it was worth the money. Either way, the Bills look a mess on both sides of the ball and look set to be the 3rd team to go 0-16 and the first team to do it, having been a playoff team the year before. Something we may never see again in our lifetime.
DJ can’t do it on his own:
A popular narrative behind drafting people like DJ and Larry Fitzgerald was that there were no other options for Bradford to aim at. While it appears that that is true, it hasn’t made the pair particularly valuable this year so far. Bradford has been sub-par (and that’s being kind) and DJ is showing signs that he knows he has to carry the team but he just can’t. In the battle between 2 of the top 4 Fantasy picks Todd Gurley has a huge day despite only recording 42 yards on the ground and 73 yards total. 3 touchdowns will do that for you, something DJ can only dream of right now. I can see a QB change and a coaching change in the not too distant future for the Cardinals.
Fitzmagic is the good news story we never knew we wanted:
In a world of doom and gloom, fake news, negative news and of course injuries, it’s great to have a good news story. Ryan Fitzpatrick has started the season like an elite superstar, beating Drew Brees and reigning Super Bowl winner Nick Foles. 819 yards, 8 touchdowns, one sole interception and 13 rushes for 35 yards have him behind only Mahomes and with the Steelers next week, he has every chance to keep the run going. Jameis Winston may not get a look in for a few weeks even when his suspension ends.
Off the field, Fitzmagic is winning too though. The Connor McGregor getup in his post game interview and the comments were so well played and even at 35, he is adding clips to his career highlights reel.
Vengeance is sweet for Bortles:
For a while, the Jaguars looked like they might blow out the Patriots. It got dicey towards the end but ironically a missed call by the officials for a false start against Jacksonville gifted the Jags the game. In the week the Patriots released a cringe-worthy video to try and banter with @Bortlesfacts and I fully expect that to come back and haunt them as it appears they got spooked by a player parody account. Not like the Patriots at all. Bortles himself had a fire under his ass and with 4 touchdown passes and over 400 all-purpose yards he showed what he is capable of. The Patriots defence without Matt Patricia has got off to an indifferent start.
Austin Ekeler is going to be relevant this year:
Back to fantasy football since that’s what I’m here to talk about. Austin Ekeler took over relief duties for Melvin Gordon once the Chargers RB had got 3 touchdowns and then gone down with a minor injury. That could be a theme but across two games with very different game scripts he has had 23 and 13 points in PPR and his ownership is rising as a result. He was one of the candidates for the hype train station this week but expect that train to pass you on the waiver wire this week, you’re probably going to have to decide now if you want to get on it or not.
And finally... Kickers. Maybe they do matter:
They shouldn't. They shouldn't be in your league, and if they are, this week was a reason should give you a hint of why they are a bad idea.
Start your Chiefs and Stream against the Steelers:
The Chiefs may have the most powerful offence in the NFL. So far Patrick Mahomes has been the real deal with 584 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions and 10 carries for 39 yards in his opening two games. It’ll be interesting to see how he copes with the Broncos and the Jaguars coming up in his next 3 games. With Hill, Hunt, Watkins and Kelce all able to pitch in at any moment the options they have are ridiculous and the only negative for fantasy is having to predict which will go off each week.
The Steelers meanwhile are looking like a bit of a mess in defence. They still seem shell-shocked and short of leaders since they lost Ryan Shazier. Nobody has stepped up to be a difference maker. TJ Watt is showing promise at LB but there’s a lot of pieces just not performing. They’re a team I’m happy streaming offensive players against for sure.
Florida is 6-0:
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins against all the odds are each 2-0 after 2 games giving Florida a clean sweep of wins so far. Since it’s the only US state I’ve ever set foot in this stat does make me happy and the fact teams starting 2-0 have a better than 60% success rate at making the playoffs, it gives me all the more cause to smile.
The Bills may as well follow Vontae Davis' example:
If you didn’t see it, Vontae Davis retired from the NFL and quit the Bills at halftime of their game against the Chargers. He’s called it “Realising I’m not up to it any more” but perhaps with the workload that the Bills were going to get and the beatings they would receive he just didn’t feel it was worth the money. Either way, the Bills look a mess on both sides of the ball and look set to be the 3rd team to go 0-16 and the first team to do it, having been a playoff team the year before. Something we may never see again in our lifetime.
DJ can’t do it on his own:
A popular narrative behind drafting people like DJ and Larry Fitzgerald was that there were no other options for Bradford to aim at. While it appears that that is true, it hasn’t made the pair particularly valuable this year so far. Bradford has been sub-par (and that’s being kind) and DJ is showing signs that he knows he has to carry the team but he just can’t. In the battle between 2 of the top 4 Fantasy picks Todd Gurley has a huge day despite only recording 42 yards on the ground and 73 yards total. 3 touchdowns will do that for you, something DJ can only dream of right now. I can see a QB change and a coaching change in the not too distant future for the Cardinals.
Fitzmagic is the good news story we never knew we wanted:
In a world of doom and gloom, fake news, negative news and of course injuries, it’s great to have a good news story. Ryan Fitzpatrick has started the season like an elite superstar, beating Drew Brees and reigning Super Bowl winner Nick Foles. 819 yards, 8 touchdowns, one sole interception and 13 rushes for 35 yards have him behind only Mahomes and with the Steelers next week, he has every chance to keep the run going. Jameis Winston may not get a look in for a few weeks even when his suspension ends.
Off the field, Fitzmagic is winning too though. The Connor McGregor getup in his post game interview and the comments were so well played and even at 35, he is adding clips to his career highlights reel.
Vengeance is sweet for Bortles:
For a while, the Jaguars looked like they might blow out the Patriots. It got dicey towards the end but ironically a missed call by the officials for a false start against Jacksonville gifted the Jags the game. In the week the Patriots released a cringe-worthy video to try and banter with @Bortlesfacts and I fully expect that to come back and haunt them as it appears they got spooked by a player parody account. Not like the Patriots at all. Bortles himself had a fire under his ass and with 4 touchdown passes and over 400 all-purpose yards he showed what he is capable of. The Patriots defence without Matt Patricia has got off to an indifferent start.
Austin Ekeler is going to be relevant this year:
Back to fantasy football since that’s what I’m here to talk about. Austin Ekeler took over relief duties for Melvin Gordon once the Chargers RB had got 3 touchdowns and then gone down with a minor injury. That could be a theme but across two games with very different game scripts he has had 23 and 13 points in PPR and his ownership is rising as a result. He was one of the candidates for the hype train station this week but expect that train to pass you on the waiver wire this week, you’re probably going to have to decide now if you want to get on it or not.
And finally... Kickers. Maybe they do matter:
They shouldn't. They shouldn't be in your league, and if they are, this week was a reason should give you a hint of why they are a bad idea.
Monday, 17 September 2018
Monday Maybes - Wk2
It’s Monday again so time for some Monday Maybes. What chance do you stand this week?
It’s Seattle @ Chicago and all the signs point toward the Bears dominating the game.
Seattle Seahawks
The Legion of boom is in pieces, in fact, every aspect of their defence seems to have been decimated. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are missing at LB and they were about all they had left to cling to.
Offensively with Doug Baldwin out for a while and on O-Line that’s still not good you have to wonder where the points are coming from.
Obviously, Russell Wilson is going to score but his outlets are falling left right and centre. It does mean his ground yards should increase so a 20-25 point day should be achievable. His air targets look to be Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall, Will Dissley and whoever else they drag in off the street. If you’re desperately behind Dissley or even Nick Vannett at a push are boom or bust candidates although the odds will be heavily against you.
In the ground game, outside of Wilson, Chris Carson will probably see an additional workload but since the Seahawks haven’t been able to sustain a run game since Beast mode left, don’t be expecting much. Penny will take some carries too but it only further hurts the theory of gaining fantasy points from the Seattle ground game.
Take these predictions with a pinch of salt as I’ve tried to go midway between floor and ceiling. I would post the Floor/Ceiling values but the range is so wide it’d be of very limited use to anyone.
Seattle Predictions:
Russel Wilson - 22pts
Chris Carson - 8pts
Rashaad Penny - 6pts
Tyler Lockett - 11pts
Brandon Marshall - 6.5pts
Jaron Brown - 3pts
Nick Vannett - 3pts
Will Dissley - 7pts
Seattle DST - 3pts
Chicago Bears:
The Bears defence looks for real and despite the late loss last week to the Packers, you have to respect its the Aaron Rodgers factor that prevented them from going 0-1.
That being said, the offence still needs a bit of work. Jordan Howard top scored last week on 15.7 and I expect he will lead the team this week as well. The interesting fact is he caught 5/5 targets which is what really boosted his number. If this is the Jordan Howard we’re going to see this season then owners have a right to be excited. Tarik Cohen had 3 catches and 5 carries last week, I’d expect those numbers to swap this week and potentially to see Cohen utilised more.
The passing game was maybe the biggest let down for the Bears in week 1. Trubisky went 23/35 for only 171yds but did rush for a TD. He can’t do that every week and he’s going to have to step up if they want to win games. His receivers likewise need to step up. Allen Robinson was the only receiver to get over 10 points and he only just managed that. Taylor Gabriel caught each of his targets and has to be a streaming option with his speed and TD upside, especially if you’re way behind. He’s pretty available too so could turn into one of those PPR darling type players. Trey Burton will struggle to be as ineffective as he was last week so he should get an uptick but he’s not going to set scoreboards alight just yet.
Scoring 13 against an Aaron Rodgers led Packers offence is a serious achievement and the acquisition of Khalil Mack really has pushed this defence over the edge. You would have to argue that would be their hardest matchup of the year and they bossed it until the final quarter. With Seattle’s offence being so depleted a desperate Russell Wilson might just hand a few balls to that defence so there is #1 DST of the week upside here, which currently is Dallas on 13.
Chicago Predictions:
Mitchell Trubisky - 15pts
Jordan Howard - 20pts
Tarik Cohen - 12pts
Allen Robinson - 12pts
Taylor Gabriel - 11pts
Anthony Miller - 5pts
Trey Burton - 6pts
Chicago DST - 18pts
After what happened 7 days ago, let’s see how wrong I can be this week!
It’s Seattle @ Chicago and all the signs point toward the Bears dominating the game.
Seattle Seahawks
The Legion of boom is in pieces, in fact, every aspect of their defence seems to have been decimated. Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright are missing at LB and they were about all they had left to cling to.
Offensively with Doug Baldwin out for a while and on O-Line that’s still not good you have to wonder where the points are coming from.
Obviously, Russell Wilson is going to score but his outlets are falling left right and centre. It does mean his ground yards should increase so a 20-25 point day should be achievable. His air targets look to be Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall, Will Dissley and whoever else they drag in off the street. If you’re desperately behind Dissley or even Nick Vannett at a push are boom or bust candidates although the odds will be heavily against you.
In the ground game, outside of Wilson, Chris Carson will probably see an additional workload but since the Seahawks haven’t been able to sustain a run game since Beast mode left, don’t be expecting much. Penny will take some carries too but it only further hurts the theory of gaining fantasy points from the Seattle ground game.
Take these predictions with a pinch of salt as I’ve tried to go midway between floor and ceiling. I would post the Floor/Ceiling values but the range is so wide it’d be of very limited use to anyone.
Seattle Predictions:
Russel Wilson - 22pts
Chris Carson - 8pts
Rashaad Penny - 6pts
Tyler Lockett - 11pts
Brandon Marshall - 6.5pts
Jaron Brown - 3pts
Nick Vannett - 3pts
Will Dissley - 7pts
Seattle DST - 3pts
Chicago Bears:
The Bears defence looks for real and despite the late loss last week to the Packers, you have to respect its the Aaron Rodgers factor that prevented them from going 0-1.
That being said, the offence still needs a bit of work. Jordan Howard top scored last week on 15.7 and I expect he will lead the team this week as well. The interesting fact is he caught 5/5 targets which is what really boosted his number. If this is the Jordan Howard we’re going to see this season then owners have a right to be excited. Tarik Cohen had 3 catches and 5 carries last week, I’d expect those numbers to swap this week and potentially to see Cohen utilised more.
The passing game was maybe the biggest let down for the Bears in week 1. Trubisky went 23/35 for only 171yds but did rush for a TD. He can’t do that every week and he’s going to have to step up if they want to win games. His receivers likewise need to step up. Allen Robinson was the only receiver to get over 10 points and he only just managed that. Taylor Gabriel caught each of his targets and has to be a streaming option with his speed and TD upside, especially if you’re way behind. He’s pretty available too so could turn into one of those PPR darling type players. Trey Burton will struggle to be as ineffective as he was last week so he should get an uptick but he’s not going to set scoreboards alight just yet.
Scoring 13 against an Aaron Rodgers led Packers offence is a serious achievement and the acquisition of Khalil Mack really has pushed this defence over the edge. You would have to argue that would be their hardest matchup of the year and they bossed it until the final quarter. With Seattle’s offence being so depleted a desperate Russell Wilson might just hand a few balls to that defence so there is #1 DST of the week upside here, which currently is Dallas on 13.
Chicago Predictions:
Mitchell Trubisky - 15pts
Jordan Howard - 20pts
Tarik Cohen - 12pts
Allen Robinson - 12pts
Taylor Gabriel - 11pts
Anthony Miller - 5pts
Trey Burton - 6pts
Chicago DST - 18pts
After what happened 7 days ago, let’s see how wrong I can be this week!
Thursday, 13 September 2018
Week 2 Thought Bubbles
It’s Week 2 and after a quite wild week 1 it’s time to pick through the wreckage and try to figure out what each game may hold for Fantasy and where the sneaky plays may come from. This is my weekly thought bubble on the scheduled games.
Ravens @ Bengals
The Thursday night game usually is one to fade and this week is no different. The Ravens blew out the Bills but I think even I could have torched Buffalo last week. It’s clear the Ravens aren’t as on board with Alex Collins as the Fantasy community was but with Kenneth Dixon on IR now it’s either Collins or Buck Allen so Collins owners may have dodged a bullet.
For the Bengals, Joe Mixon looks to finally be a bell cow as we all wished and maybe some sense is slowly creeping into the Cincinnati coaching staff. John Ross looks like he will be one of the steals of the year and you may want to get on board if you’re not already.
Panthers @ Falcons
Cam Newton is still Cam Newton but with pieces around him falling such as Greg Olsen he is going to need help more than ever. DJ Moore should be a big beneficiary of Olsen’s injury while McCaffrey looks like the may get a higher percentage of work that I’d expected. As a last note, I thought their defence would be patchy at best this season, game one suggests I may need to rethink that.
The Falcons have been decimated on defence losing Keane Neal and Deion Jones which changes the whole picture in Atlanta. With Freeman nursing another small injury Julio and Ryan will be confident plays and the likes of Sanu, Coleman and even Hooper should all see an uptick across the season.
Chargers @ Bills
After I hyped the Chargers DST this offseason they got torched by Tyreek Hill and Pat Mahomes. Joey Bosa is a huge miss for that defence but against the Bills, they should still be a top 3 option. On offence, I’m expecting Rivers and Allen to put a big game together and the support pieces like the Williams’, Gates and Ekeler should be playable in deeper leagues. Melvin Gordon will be a must-start for as long as he is healthy.
The Bills are the dumpster fire we called in the offseason and if you’re letting the often score shy Ravens put up 40+ points you really are bad. They need to get Shady into the game but when you need to throw to look competitive you really need receivers... Maybe Josh Allen being thrown in early will improve things? However, I think the problems are deeper than just Peterman.
Vikings @ Packers
The preview for this will be dominated by Aaron Rodgers and his knee injury. If he plays it could be a fascinating matchup as one of the best pass attacks meets one of the best defences. If Rodgers plays you can fire up whichever receivers are healthy and since he’s the least banged up Geronimo Allison is one of my plays of the week, so long as it is Rodgers. If Kizer plays they get your Minnesota stock out there.
The Green Bay defence didn’t look too solid so Kirk Cousin, Thielin, Diggs and Rudolph are all going to put up points. Surprisingly, Dalvin Cook saw the field on the majority of snaps and Latavious Murray was barely a feature despite Cook returning from injury and being treated carefully in the build up. Cook now is a weekly must start and is in the reckoning to be the #1 RB. Last note here, if Rodgers is out, the Vikings DST goes from risky to top 3.
Texans @ Titans
Deshaun Watson didn’t start like a QB with the record he had last season. I’ve been expecting him to bust all summer and this was a good start but against the Patriots they can make any QB look average on their day. The Titans DST still are not an easy proposition and with the Texans still a few sandwiches short of a picnic on offence it will be a struggle. Lamar Miller will need more of a role but if Fuller remains sidelined (he is trending towards starting) the guy you may want in deep leagues is Bruce Ellington.
The Titans will just hope to have a game that runs its course properly rather than having 2, 2hr storm delays. Before there break Derrick Henry got the bulk of the work and appeared ineffective. After the break, Dion Lewis took over and lit up Fantasy scoreboards (a lot being my own). Expect that to continue. Passing wise Mariota is good to go but is going to have to convince a few people that he is still a good QB. Corey Davis is questionable so Really share Matthews gets an uptick and with Delanie Walker out long term, Jonnu Smith is going to have to get straight to business.
Browns @ Saints
The Saints defence can’t be as bad as last week. Being torched by Fitzmagic was a shock which they won’t want to repeat. The Browns ended their losing run in the most Browns way by drawing with the Steelers but with some poor conditions in that game, their true ability may be clearer this week. Tyrod now can be more effective and the likes of Landry and Gordon should have easier job reeling in catches. I like Duke Johnson as a play this week but when facing Drew Brees the tips are the same; fade the defence and play the pass catchers.
The Saints still have a powerful offence. Michael Thomas started off on fire and even Ted Ginn got in on the act. With Cam Meredith still not up to speed Ginn is a great option and at a, push Ben Watson is a decent TE stream.
Dolphins @ Jets
The Dolphins looked decent against the Titans when they weren’t sheltering against the lightning. Kenny Stills was up there as maybe my 2nd most drafted player across 50 games and my confidence so far does not look misplaced. The running game didn’t see a lot of work and I sense that may be a theme, but Tannehill to Stills looks like a combo to believe in.
The Jets really slated the Lions and made me eat my article last week. I’m still not sold on the Jets but Crowelll looks like the player people overdrafted last year and the 1-2 punch of Anderson and Enunwa worked well for Darnold and for fantasy owners. Again, I can see those three continuing to score plenty for the Jets and the defence should still be a good play this week, even if I’m not sure how long it will last.
Chiefs @ Steelers
The Chiefs started the season on fire against a Chargers team I rated. Now they face a Steelers defence I really don’t rate and coming off the embarrassment vs the Browns I’m expecting Mahomes, Hill and all the pass catchers to continue where they left off last week. Kareem Hunt should see an uptick too, after a quiet week one I think it’s time for last years rushing leader to step up. This has the potential to be a shootout so don’t even think about the defences.
So, onto the Steelers offence and with Bell likely to miss this game James Connor will be as playable as he was last week. Big Ben was terrible in week one and with him nursing an injury I’d steer clear in week two. With that being said you can never drop AB, and Juju is heading into the same realm.
Eagles @ Buccaneers
The opening day winners play the first Sunday’s biggest upset team. The Eagles are waiting to see is Alshon Jeffrey will return but if not my #1 most drafted player this year Nelson Agholor will be the guy to own and against this Bucs defence he is a must play. My #2 most drafted player Corey Clement I’m hoping is more of a factor and really he should be (see Kamara last week) while Jay Ajayi may be used sparingly again yet still score well like he did against the Falcons.
The Bucs will still be under Fitzmagics stewardship but the Eagles should offer more resistance than the Saints and I just can’t see a repeat. In fact, it may be a regression towards the mean. The one guy to look out for is Chris Godwin. If Desean Jackson misses the game then Godwin is a great waiver wire option. Barber will be the starter at RB but there’s still going to be better options available.
Colts @ Redskins
Andrew Luck is back and he didn’t look too rusty in week one and as he gets more games under his belt I think he’s only going to be better. TY Hilton will be relevant all year but the main area of interest is tight end. In week one both Ebron and Doyle were top 7 in PPR so Luck can certainly keep both relevant which reduces Ryan Grants ceiling a little.
The Redskins we’re one of my biggest surprises in week one one both sides of the ball and Adrian Peterson looked capable of having one more big year. He Colts are still leaky in defence so Alex Smith is a solid play, Crowder and Doctson should be flex plays and if you know what rule 86 is, you’ll know to play Jordan Reed if you own him.
Cardinals @ Rams
Before week one played out this matchup would have been seen as David Johnson vs Todd Gurley in the battle of the top picks. However, after the events of week one, there are concerns for the Cardinals. They looked short on options, short on ideas and short on talent. Sam Bradford was bot what I had hoped and a repeat performance will definitely start the Josh Rosen shouts. DJ looks the only real weapon since Bradford even made Larry Fitzgerald struggle to be relevant. I don’t see how they can fix things fast enough and with a Rams defence which seems to be as good as advertised, the only Cardinal you can play is DJ.
The Rams should pretty much explain themselves. Gurley is always a must start, the defence is stellar, Goff should get plenty of work and Cooks/Kupp/Woods will be a split and guessing it is a real game of risk and reward. If Cooks is shadowed by Patrick Peterson I’m looking for Cooper to be a few people’s Kupp of tea.
Lions @ 49ers
I’ve said it already, thenLions can not be as bad as they were in week one. That was an outlier and right now they could be decent trade targets. With an opponent who doesn’t know their play calls and with a lot of work still to do themselves the Lions offence should get a chance to rebound. Stafford, Tate and Jones should be treated like they were in week one but after being one of the brighter sparks against the Jets, Kenny Golladay is a deeper league play.
The 49ers got the Jimmy G unbeaten streak snapped and have work to do on both sides of the ball. Garçon isn’t convincing, Goodwin may miss due to injury and the running game hasn’t coped with the loss of McKinnon yet so the two guys left are Kittle and Pettis. Apart from sounding like they should be a village shoe shop these two may be very interest plays as the volume should be there.
Raiders @ Broncos
The Raiders haven’t got any younger the last time I looked. Gruden is already calling out his players in public and the players themselves still seem shellshocked by the personnel moves that they’ve made. I’m steering clear of all Raiders, including Lynch and Cooper until they can prove there is life there.
The Broncos look like they should have a lot of joy. Keenum is a great stream at QB. Lindsey might remain relevant and Royce Freeman should start to live up to his ADP and shine. Thomas and Sanders should both be fired up with confidence and if somehow we even get a fantasy relevant tight end in Denver that that really would be a kick up the Jake Butt.
Patriots @ Jaguars
A rematch of that ill fated AFC Championship game and it already feels like a grudge match. Both teams have great defences but get things done (enough) on offence. If Fournette is a full go the Jags will be pounding the Patriots as much as they can. Yeldon will get into the action either way and with a bunch of pass catchers available for Bortles to use the team should do great, but predicting the best fantasy asset is a risky business.
The Patriots seem to be going through receivers like they are just a grocery store item and with Chris Hogan having a disappointing game one there’s only Brady and Gronk you can really trust. Having said that I do feel that James White will be a decent play this week and over the season.
Giants @ Cowboys
This is a difficult one to judge on. Both teams lost tight affairs and showed signs that they haven’t quite fixed every Robles they have. The Giants have OBJ back fit and firing and Saquon Barkley eventually ripped off that big debut TD run to announce his arrival. Otherwise, Engram and Shepard were quiet and with Eli at the helm, I can see that trend continuing.
The Cowboys will always have an offensive threat for as long as Zeke is on the field but after Elliott they really don’t appear to have much. Dak is a shadow of his former self, Hurns and Gallup didn’t offer a lot and I’m not sure anyone could name who their main Tight End is going to be. It’s a mess, only made worse by the loss of their starting centre. Joe Looney is not Travis Fredericks and that showed against the Panthers.
Seahawks @ Bears
The final game of the week will be the Seahawks and the Bears. In years gone by you’d be saying it’s an elite defence vs an offence likely to use the run a lot. I’d argue you can use the statement still, but swapping the teams around. The Legion of Boom has self destructed and with Doug Baldwin going down the likes of a Carson and Penny are going to see a lot of work. Yes, they have an ageing Brandon Marshall and a nearly man in Tyler Lockett but is that going to be enough for Russel Wilson to find when he’s scrambling to avoid hits like usual? I don’t think I want any part of the Seahawks and right now apart from Wilson as he may be the only piece they have left.
The Bears meanwhile have created a monster defence to Bear down on the opposition. I thought they would be good even before they traded for Khalil Mack but that just pushed them over the top and now I’m picking them up everywhere. They got double digits against Aaron Rodgers people! On offence, it’s not quite so rosy yet but the pieces are there. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen should be stronger this week but I wonder if it may be another few weeks before the likes of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller get to show their full potential. The issue could be Trubisky. He has a lot of weapons when you also include Burton at tight end, but he just doesn’t seem in sync yet. The high turnover of personal has set them back a bit but Seattle does offer up a great opportunity to get it together. If they do, they’re a contender.
Ravens @ Bengals
The Thursday night game usually is one to fade and this week is no different. The Ravens blew out the Bills but I think even I could have torched Buffalo last week. It’s clear the Ravens aren’t as on board with Alex Collins as the Fantasy community was but with Kenneth Dixon on IR now it’s either Collins or Buck Allen so Collins owners may have dodged a bullet.
For the Bengals, Joe Mixon looks to finally be a bell cow as we all wished and maybe some sense is slowly creeping into the Cincinnati coaching staff. John Ross looks like he will be one of the steals of the year and you may want to get on board if you’re not already.
Panthers @ Falcons
Cam Newton is still Cam Newton but with pieces around him falling such as Greg Olsen he is going to need help more than ever. DJ Moore should be a big beneficiary of Olsen’s injury while McCaffrey looks like the may get a higher percentage of work that I’d expected. As a last note, I thought their defence would be patchy at best this season, game one suggests I may need to rethink that.
The Falcons have been decimated on defence losing Keane Neal and Deion Jones which changes the whole picture in Atlanta. With Freeman nursing another small injury Julio and Ryan will be confident plays and the likes of Sanu, Coleman and even Hooper should all see an uptick across the season.
Chargers @ Bills
After I hyped the Chargers DST this offseason they got torched by Tyreek Hill and Pat Mahomes. Joey Bosa is a huge miss for that defence but against the Bills, they should still be a top 3 option. On offence, I’m expecting Rivers and Allen to put a big game together and the support pieces like the Williams’, Gates and Ekeler should be playable in deeper leagues. Melvin Gordon will be a must-start for as long as he is healthy.
The Bills are the dumpster fire we called in the offseason and if you’re letting the often score shy Ravens put up 40+ points you really are bad. They need to get Shady into the game but when you need to throw to look competitive you really need receivers... Maybe Josh Allen being thrown in early will improve things? However, I think the problems are deeper than just Peterman.
Vikings @ Packers
The preview for this will be dominated by Aaron Rodgers and his knee injury. If he plays it could be a fascinating matchup as one of the best pass attacks meets one of the best defences. If Rodgers plays you can fire up whichever receivers are healthy and since he’s the least banged up Geronimo Allison is one of my plays of the week, so long as it is Rodgers. If Kizer plays they get your Minnesota stock out there.
The Green Bay defence didn’t look too solid so Kirk Cousin, Thielin, Diggs and Rudolph are all going to put up points. Surprisingly, Dalvin Cook saw the field on the majority of snaps and Latavious Murray was barely a feature despite Cook returning from injury and being treated carefully in the build up. Cook now is a weekly must start and is in the reckoning to be the #1 RB. Last note here, if Rodgers is out, the Vikings DST goes from risky to top 3.
Texans @ Titans
Deshaun Watson didn’t start like a QB with the record he had last season. I’ve been expecting him to bust all summer and this was a good start but against the Patriots they can make any QB look average on their day. The Titans DST still are not an easy proposition and with the Texans still a few sandwiches short of a picnic on offence it will be a struggle. Lamar Miller will need more of a role but if Fuller remains sidelined (he is trending towards starting) the guy you may want in deep leagues is Bruce Ellington.
The Titans will just hope to have a game that runs its course properly rather than having 2, 2hr storm delays. Before there break Derrick Henry got the bulk of the work and appeared ineffective. After the break, Dion Lewis took over and lit up Fantasy scoreboards (a lot being my own). Expect that to continue. Passing wise Mariota is good to go but is going to have to convince a few people that he is still a good QB. Corey Davis is questionable so Really share Matthews gets an uptick and with Delanie Walker out long term, Jonnu Smith is going to have to get straight to business.
Browns @ Saints
The Saints defence can’t be as bad as last week. Being torched by Fitzmagic was a shock which they won’t want to repeat. The Browns ended their losing run in the most Browns way by drawing with the Steelers but with some poor conditions in that game, their true ability may be clearer this week. Tyrod now can be more effective and the likes of Landry and Gordon should have easier job reeling in catches. I like Duke Johnson as a play this week but when facing Drew Brees the tips are the same; fade the defence and play the pass catchers.
The Saints still have a powerful offence. Michael Thomas started off on fire and even Ted Ginn got in on the act. With Cam Meredith still not up to speed Ginn is a great option and at a, push Ben Watson is a decent TE stream.
Dolphins @ Jets
The Dolphins looked decent against the Titans when they weren’t sheltering against the lightning. Kenny Stills was up there as maybe my 2nd most drafted player across 50 games and my confidence so far does not look misplaced. The running game didn’t see a lot of work and I sense that may be a theme, but Tannehill to Stills looks like a combo to believe in.
The Jets really slated the Lions and made me eat my article last week. I’m still not sold on the Jets but Crowelll looks like the player people overdrafted last year and the 1-2 punch of Anderson and Enunwa worked well for Darnold and for fantasy owners. Again, I can see those three continuing to score plenty for the Jets and the defence should still be a good play this week, even if I’m not sure how long it will last.
Chiefs @ Steelers
The Chiefs started the season on fire against a Chargers team I rated. Now they face a Steelers defence I really don’t rate and coming off the embarrassment vs the Browns I’m expecting Mahomes, Hill and all the pass catchers to continue where they left off last week. Kareem Hunt should see an uptick too, after a quiet week one I think it’s time for last years rushing leader to step up. This has the potential to be a shootout so don’t even think about the defences.
So, onto the Steelers offence and with Bell likely to miss this game James Connor will be as playable as he was last week. Big Ben was terrible in week one and with him nursing an injury I’d steer clear in week two. With that being said you can never drop AB, and Juju is heading into the same realm.
Eagles @ Buccaneers
The opening day winners play the first Sunday’s biggest upset team. The Eagles are waiting to see is Alshon Jeffrey will return but if not my #1 most drafted player this year Nelson Agholor will be the guy to own and against this Bucs defence he is a must play. My #2 most drafted player Corey Clement I’m hoping is more of a factor and really he should be (see Kamara last week) while Jay Ajayi may be used sparingly again yet still score well like he did against the Falcons.
The Bucs will still be under Fitzmagics stewardship but the Eagles should offer more resistance than the Saints and I just can’t see a repeat. In fact, it may be a regression towards the mean. The one guy to look out for is Chris Godwin. If Desean Jackson misses the game then Godwin is a great waiver wire option. Barber will be the starter at RB but there’s still going to be better options available.
Colts @ Redskins
Andrew Luck is back and he didn’t look too rusty in week one and as he gets more games under his belt I think he’s only going to be better. TY Hilton will be relevant all year but the main area of interest is tight end. In week one both Ebron and Doyle were top 7 in PPR so Luck can certainly keep both relevant which reduces Ryan Grants ceiling a little.
The Redskins we’re one of my biggest surprises in week one one both sides of the ball and Adrian Peterson looked capable of having one more big year. He Colts are still leaky in defence so Alex Smith is a solid play, Crowder and Doctson should be flex plays and if you know what rule 86 is, you’ll know to play Jordan Reed if you own him.
Cardinals @ Rams
Before week one played out this matchup would have been seen as David Johnson vs Todd Gurley in the battle of the top picks. However, after the events of week one, there are concerns for the Cardinals. They looked short on options, short on ideas and short on talent. Sam Bradford was bot what I had hoped and a repeat performance will definitely start the Josh Rosen shouts. DJ looks the only real weapon since Bradford even made Larry Fitzgerald struggle to be relevant. I don’t see how they can fix things fast enough and with a Rams defence which seems to be as good as advertised, the only Cardinal you can play is DJ.
The Rams should pretty much explain themselves. Gurley is always a must start, the defence is stellar, Goff should get plenty of work and Cooks/Kupp/Woods will be a split and guessing it is a real game of risk and reward. If Cooks is shadowed by Patrick Peterson I’m looking for Cooper to be a few people’s Kupp of tea.
Lions @ 49ers
I’ve said it already, thenLions can not be as bad as they were in week one. That was an outlier and right now they could be decent trade targets. With an opponent who doesn’t know their play calls and with a lot of work still to do themselves the Lions offence should get a chance to rebound. Stafford, Tate and Jones should be treated like they were in week one but after being one of the brighter sparks against the Jets, Kenny Golladay is a deeper league play.
The 49ers got the Jimmy G unbeaten streak snapped and have work to do on both sides of the ball. Garçon isn’t convincing, Goodwin may miss due to injury and the running game hasn’t coped with the loss of McKinnon yet so the two guys left are Kittle and Pettis. Apart from sounding like they should be a village shoe shop these two may be very interest plays as the volume should be there.
Raiders @ Broncos
The Raiders haven’t got any younger the last time I looked. Gruden is already calling out his players in public and the players themselves still seem shellshocked by the personnel moves that they’ve made. I’m steering clear of all Raiders, including Lynch and Cooper until they can prove there is life there.
The Broncos look like they should have a lot of joy. Keenum is a great stream at QB. Lindsey might remain relevant and Royce Freeman should start to live up to his ADP and shine. Thomas and Sanders should both be fired up with confidence and if somehow we even get a fantasy relevant tight end in Denver that that really would be a kick up the Jake Butt.
Patriots @ Jaguars
A rematch of that ill fated AFC Championship game and it already feels like a grudge match. Both teams have great defences but get things done (enough) on offence. If Fournette is a full go the Jags will be pounding the Patriots as much as they can. Yeldon will get into the action either way and with a bunch of pass catchers available for Bortles to use the team should do great, but predicting the best fantasy asset is a risky business.
The Patriots seem to be going through receivers like they are just a grocery store item and with Chris Hogan having a disappointing game one there’s only Brady and Gronk you can really trust. Having said that I do feel that James White will be a decent play this week and over the season.
Giants @ Cowboys
This is a difficult one to judge on. Both teams lost tight affairs and showed signs that they haven’t quite fixed every Robles they have. The Giants have OBJ back fit and firing and Saquon Barkley eventually ripped off that big debut TD run to announce his arrival. Otherwise, Engram and Shepard were quiet and with Eli at the helm, I can see that trend continuing.
The Cowboys will always have an offensive threat for as long as Zeke is on the field but after Elliott they really don’t appear to have much. Dak is a shadow of his former self, Hurns and Gallup didn’t offer a lot and I’m not sure anyone could name who their main Tight End is going to be. It’s a mess, only made worse by the loss of their starting centre. Joe Looney is not Travis Fredericks and that showed against the Panthers.
Seahawks @ Bears
The final game of the week will be the Seahawks and the Bears. In years gone by you’d be saying it’s an elite defence vs an offence likely to use the run a lot. I’d argue you can use the statement still, but swapping the teams around. The Legion of Boom has self destructed and with Doug Baldwin going down the likes of a Carson and Penny are going to see a lot of work. Yes, they have an ageing Brandon Marshall and a nearly man in Tyler Lockett but is that going to be enough for Russel Wilson to find when he’s scrambling to avoid hits like usual? I don’t think I want any part of the Seahawks and right now apart from Wilson as he may be the only piece they have left.
The Bears meanwhile have created a monster defence to Bear down on the opposition. I thought they would be good even before they traded for Khalil Mack but that just pushed them over the top and now I’m picking them up everywhere. They got double digits against Aaron Rodgers people! On offence, it’s not quite so rosy yet but the pieces are there. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen should be stronger this week but I wonder if it may be another few weeks before the likes of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller get to show their full potential. The issue could be Trubisky. He has a lot of weapons when you also include Burton at tight end, but he just doesn’t seem in sync yet. The high turnover of personal has set them back a bit but Seattle does offer up a great opportunity to get it together. If they do, they’re a contender.
The Hype Train Station
Since I write a lot of my articles while on a train between home and work and that I work for the railways, it only seems apt that I take a look at which hype trains are sat in the station and see which ones I fancy getting on board and which ones are going to be delayed or cancelled.
Standing Room only - Michael Thomas
MT had a monumental week one despite the loss against Fitzmagic and the Buccaneers. Drew Brees top target will always be valuable but whatever the reason was for Thomas to slip into round two in most drafts is surely forgotten now. The hype now could reach a point where he’s being discussed as the #1 WR although Tyreek Hill (who would have gone here if I hadn’t mentioned him in my review article) is also making that case.
Reservations Recommended - Chicago DST
Strange to talk about a defence in an article like this but I think the Bears DST may be legit. I had the feeling all offseason and drafted them everywhere and after an imMackulate performance against the Packers, they should be a pickup in a lot of leagues. They’ll be available in a lot of places since they weren’t a top DST in drafts and playing Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers meant they weren’t a streaming candidate either. Those games where I don’t have them or the Jags I may find myself looking to pick them up but so might many others.
Delayed - Patrick Mahomes
He had a fantastic start to the season and dominated a Chargers defence that I thought might pick him off a few times. He obviously has that cannon for an arm but the rest of his game didn’t seem to suffer too badly either. I can’t quite get on board yet though. I do own him in a few places and since my other options have struggled I may roll him out in week 2 but I want him to prove that he can do more ham pass to Hill and really is more than a big arm. The early signs are there though and I wonder if a lot of people might leap a bit early. I can’t quite get on that hype train yet but if things happen in the coming weeks I can see myself making a dash for it before it departs the platform.
Cancelled - Jay Ajayi
Speaking of trains, the Jay Train had a monster week one and a lot of people are going to be getting on board. Since he’s London Born and something of a hero to Brit’s like me it’s hard to bash him but I feel I need to put the brakes on a bit. He had a 2 TD performance against Atlanta but he was used sparingly and to put it
bluntly, he isn’t going to score 2 touchdowns in every game. If he gets kept out of the end zone he’s not going to be scoring large amounts of points in fantasy. In theory, every RB has TD upside but with Jeffrey potentially back and Ajayi’s own health always a nagging question I’m fading that station platform.
The Empty Stock train - Quincy Enunwa
This section I’m going to use to suggest a player who not a lot will have given thought to and won’t be owned in many places but where you should get a nice ride if you board the train. This week I’ve opted for Quincy Enunwa. He was my last round flier in a few leagues and a deep league stash after coming back from injury and with only Robby Anderson above him on the depth chart, the signs have been there. The Jets receiving options are very limited and in reality, they shouldn’t have the game go quite like it did against the Lions every week. However, Darnold looks competent, the other receivers don’t look up to much and in an offence, I can see needing to pass a lot, he’s got to be a decent weekly option. A constant get out of jail free card if your other options have bad matchups or questionable injuries.
Standing Room only - Michael Thomas
MT had a monumental week one despite the loss against Fitzmagic and the Buccaneers. Drew Brees top target will always be valuable but whatever the reason was for Thomas to slip into round two in most drafts is surely forgotten now. The hype now could reach a point where he’s being discussed as the #1 WR although Tyreek Hill (who would have gone here if I hadn’t mentioned him in my review article) is also making that case.
Reservations Recommended - Chicago DST
Strange to talk about a defence in an article like this but I think the Bears DST may be legit. I had the feeling all offseason and drafted them everywhere and after an imMackulate performance against the Packers, they should be a pickup in a lot of leagues. They’ll be available in a lot of places since they weren’t a top DST in drafts and playing Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers meant they weren’t a streaming candidate either. Those games where I don’t have them or the Jags I may find myself looking to pick them up but so might many others.
Delayed - Patrick Mahomes
He had a fantastic start to the season and dominated a Chargers defence that I thought might pick him off a few times. He obviously has that cannon for an arm but the rest of his game didn’t seem to suffer too badly either. I can’t quite get on board yet though. I do own him in a few places and since my other options have struggled I may roll him out in week 2 but I want him to prove that he can do more ham pass to Hill and really is more than a big arm. The early signs are there though and I wonder if a lot of people might leap a bit early. I can’t quite get on that hype train yet but if things happen in the coming weeks I can see myself making a dash for it before it departs the platform.
Cancelled - Jay Ajayi
Speaking of trains, the Jay Train had a monster week one and a lot of people are going to be getting on board. Since he’s London Born and something of a hero to Brit’s like me it’s hard to bash him but I feel I need to put the brakes on a bit. He had a 2 TD performance against Atlanta but he was used sparingly and to put it
bluntly, he isn’t going to score 2 touchdowns in every game. If he gets kept out of the end zone he’s not going to be scoring large amounts of points in fantasy. In theory, every RB has TD upside but with Jeffrey potentially back and Ajayi’s own health always a nagging question I’m fading that station platform.
The Empty Stock train - Quincy Enunwa
This section I’m going to use to suggest a player who not a lot will have given thought to and won’t be owned in many places but where you should get a nice ride if you board the train. This week I’ve opted for Quincy Enunwa. He was my last round flier in a few leagues and a deep league stash after coming back from injury and with only Robby Anderson above him on the depth chart, the signs have been there. The Jets receiving options are very limited and in reality, they shouldn’t have the game go quite like it did against the Lions every week. However, Darnold looks competent, the other receivers don’t look up to much and in an offence, I can see needing to pass a lot, he’s got to be a decent weekly option. A constant get out of jail free card if your other options have bad matchups or questionable injuries.
Week One Takeaways
Now for my UK followers, a takeaway is often viewed as items like chicken chow mien and prawn crackers or a lamb rogan josh in a microwaveable box. In football and in this article I’m more looking to see what we can learn from week one. My aim is to guide you as to who was undercooked, who looked hot and who you may need to take a cool glass of milk with.
Tyreek Hill looks unstoppable
Blistering speed that is more than just the 40yard dash straight line, good route running, good hands, a working offensive system with Andy Reid, a QB with the arm to deliver and the support pieces to avoid getting all the attention all adds up to one heck of a player.
I’ll be honest here, I wasn’t really on the Hill train a lot. I thought Sammy Watkins was the better value and that both would see a lot of looks but the difference in speed and skill is much more than the ADP difference suggested. I was high on both but often missed Hill purely because I thought it was so obvious something had to go wrong. A classic case of overthinking it. Trading for him now would be a bad idea as the premiums will be through the roof but equally, if you own him it should take a king's ransom to even consider moving him.
The Lions won’t be that bad again.
Monday night football I got the Lions vs Jets totally wrong. Stafford bombed and Golladay was the shining light. Darnold recovered from a bad start to become respectable. The run game was much more powerful than I expected but the Lions defence to be much better. They’re still getting into their new system. There were plenty of good signs though, it’s just not clicked in time for game 1 and Stafford, so often the hero turned out to be the weak link. I can’t see them being that bad again and it’s debatable that Lions players may be decent trade targets.
Fire up the Atlanta pass attack
Matt Ryan got a lot of flack for his opening night performance but the team are going to have to rely on him much heavier this season than normal. The losses of Keane Neal and Deion Jones who were their best two defensive players will make keeping the opponents score down a difficult task. That kind of game script would suggest Julio, Sanu, Ridley and Hooper might see a lot of targets and with Freeman already a little banged up the Atlanta run game isn’t fantastic to own right now.
Denver’s backfield is still complicated
Lindsey has a first game to remember. He has speed and agility, a good set of hands and despite his frame, he has some strength to him. Royce Freeman will still be the starter and over the season I can see him being a top Fantasy asset like I have been drafting him as, but Lindsey may prevent him from being a solid top 5 option and it may be another 1,2 punch where you have to figure which you want. I can see a little bit of Ingram and Kamara in them but even younger. If the Denver O-Line does show signs it’s improved then both will be owned in every league very soon. I’m targeting Lindsey if I have an obvious drop, which in many leagues is Devante Booker now that he seems like an afterthought.
The Browns broke their week 1 hoodoo in the most Browns way
So you’ve not won on opening day for 14 years and against your bitter rivals who you haven’t beaten in 6 attempts, you get a chance. With the Steelers missing a field goal in difficult conditions you get a great INT and get into great field goal range to win it in OT. Then you get the attempt blocked and it ends in an annoying draw. They’re still the Browns and they still haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016.
There are positive signs though. Landry and Gordon should be strong, Tyrod is looking like a good play now the Mayfield
Hype subsided and they really do have some great defensive pieces. In deep leagues where I have to play 2 DST or where there are 24 teams I found myself believing in the Browns D and with Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett that looks a shrewd move.
It’s great to have football back
Watching redzone on a Sunday night is one of the biggest joys of each week for me at this time of year and it feels so good to have it back. Sure it’s getting colder and the nights are closing in, but there’s nothing like tracking 50 fantasy teams, rooting for your teams and watching all the action to make you forget all that. Football is back people!!!
Tyreek Hill looks unstoppable
Blistering speed that is more than just the 40yard dash straight line, good route running, good hands, a working offensive system with Andy Reid, a QB with the arm to deliver and the support pieces to avoid getting all the attention all adds up to one heck of a player.
I’ll be honest here, I wasn’t really on the Hill train a lot. I thought Sammy Watkins was the better value and that both would see a lot of looks but the difference in speed and skill is much more than the ADP difference suggested. I was high on both but often missed Hill purely because I thought it was so obvious something had to go wrong. A classic case of overthinking it. Trading for him now would be a bad idea as the premiums will be through the roof but equally, if you own him it should take a king's ransom to even consider moving him.
The Lions won’t be that bad again.
Monday night football I got the Lions vs Jets totally wrong. Stafford bombed and Golladay was the shining light. Darnold recovered from a bad start to become respectable. The run game was much more powerful than I expected but the Lions defence to be much better. They’re still getting into their new system. There were plenty of good signs though, it’s just not clicked in time for game 1 and Stafford, so often the hero turned out to be the weak link. I can’t see them being that bad again and it’s debatable that Lions players may be decent trade targets.
Fire up the Atlanta pass attack
Matt Ryan got a lot of flack for his opening night performance but the team are going to have to rely on him much heavier this season than normal. The losses of Keane Neal and Deion Jones who were their best two defensive players will make keeping the opponents score down a difficult task. That kind of game script would suggest Julio, Sanu, Ridley and Hooper might see a lot of targets and with Freeman already a little banged up the Atlanta run game isn’t fantastic to own right now.
Denver’s backfield is still complicated
Lindsey has a first game to remember. He has speed and agility, a good set of hands and despite his frame, he has some strength to him. Royce Freeman will still be the starter and over the season I can see him being a top Fantasy asset like I have been drafting him as, but Lindsey may prevent him from being a solid top 5 option and it may be another 1,2 punch where you have to figure which you want. I can see a little bit of Ingram and Kamara in them but even younger. If the Denver O-Line does show signs it’s improved then both will be owned in every league very soon. I’m targeting Lindsey if I have an obvious drop, which in many leagues is Devante Booker now that he seems like an afterthought.
The Browns broke their week 1 hoodoo in the most Browns way
So you’ve not won on opening day for 14 years and against your bitter rivals who you haven’t beaten in 6 attempts, you get a chance. With the Steelers missing a field goal in difficult conditions you get a great INT and get into great field goal range to win it in OT. Then you get the attempt blocked and it ends in an annoying draw. They’re still the Browns and they still haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016.
There are positive signs though. Landry and Gordon should be strong, Tyrod is looking like a good play now the Mayfield
Hype subsided and they really do have some great defensive pieces. In deep leagues where I have to play 2 DST or where there are 24 teams I found myself believing in the Browns D and with Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett that looks a shrewd move.
It’s great to have football back
Watching redzone on a Sunday night is one of the biggest joys of each week for me at this time of year and it feels so good to have it back. Sure it’s getting colder and the nights are closing in, but there’s nothing like tracking 50 fantasy teams, rooting for your teams and watching all the action to make you forget all that. Football is back people!!!
The Fantasy Thinker
Hi, I’m James, a Fantasy Football addict from the county of Yorkshire in North East England. I’ve been playing since 2014 and increasing my involvement year on year. I’ve had between 30 and 50 leagues over the past few years and with 25 dynasty or keeper games, I tend to put my hand to anything going.
I try not to let team bias get in the way of my judgements but since people will often ask, I am a Steelers fan and my Wife Cathy (who is also a very good Fantasy Football player) is a big Jaguars fan. My favourite player is Antonio Brown and hers is Leonard Fournette.
My various roles in fantasy football media include:
- Admin on the NFL Fantasy Football Discussion Group on Facebook.
- Contributor and feedback guy for The Fantasy Takeaway Podcast
- Member of First Down UK and soon to be a contributor.
- Member of the UK Fantasy Football Fraternity.
- The writer of The Fantasy Thinker Blog.
You can find me on Twitter @FFthinker
This blog is all about proving you with a few ideas and views on fantasy football which hopefully, will guide you to titles now (and in the future if you’re in Keeper or Dynasty leagues). I am involved in most league styles so feel free to send me any questions. IDP, Keeper, Dynasty, Deep Deep leagues, Bestball, DFS are all familiar to me.
I’m not the kind of person to bombard you with statistics and blind you with numbers, so if you are a stats geek or after something that can be proved in excel I will happily direct you to some of the other fantastic content creators who are infinitely better at that stuff than I am. I’m a community kind of person so happy to direct people to various sources on information, I do this for fun after all.
What you will get are some logical opinions, some interesting ideas to consider, a few stats where needed, a bit of fun and links to other content which should make you a better fantasy player or at least have a load of fun while playing.
With my target audience being the whole world but predominantly the UK and the United States I’ll be writing in my native UK English so if things I wrote make no sense grammatically then I can only apologise. If you can’t figure anything out just message me and I’ll rephrase it.
I’m hoping when I can build up this blog a bit more I’ll be able to guest on a few UK podcasts and one day I’ll be on The Fantasy Takeaway I’m sure (that is one of my dreams and goals).
That’s me; The Fantasy Thinker. Hopefully, all your thoughts will be positive but whatever you think I’m always after feedback and content/questions so don’t hesitate to comment on an article or send me a message on Twitter on @FFthinker
Monday, 10 September 2018
Monday Maybes - Wk1
A question I see multiple times every week without fail is the customary Monday morning “What’s the chances?” Monday night games help earn the NFL the TV money but it doesn’t half leave some fantasy games hanging in the balance. With this in mind, rather than answer each one individually I’m going to post a “Monday Maybes” article so hopefully, you can figure out what your chances are.
Lions vs Jets
The Lions improvements this offseason have been pretty decent, getting a handy running back combination, defensive-minded coach and dropping Eric Ebron like he drops passes.
Their Defence was a very popular streaming option and against rookie Sam Darnold you would expect a few turnovers. They should be good for 10-15 points in my eyes.
Matt Stafford was briefly the highest paid player in football (He’s now probably 20th) and I’ve tipped him to be Mr Consistent this year and be a top 10QB. With this in mind, I think he’s a low 20s scorer this week against a newly formed, rather untried Jets defence. He has the weapons and the talent to go higher, but if he’s all you have left and you’re 30 behind I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are often great to own as they always seem to end the season within a few spots of each other. However, it’s weekly the touchdowns that determine who is on top. It’s hard to second guess between the two but if you own either of them you’re likely to get over 10points.
Kenny Golladay may be in line to get some of the targets previously aimed at the Tight End although Luke Willson will still attract some of them. If you’re behind by double digits and either of these two is all you have left you are basically willing on a touchdown. It’s unlikely but not impossible.
A quick note on kickers. Get them out of your league. They’re seriously hard to predict and just create a mess! Joking aside Prater is still good.
The running game is going to be much harder to predict. Blount could start out as the 1st down back and get goal-line work. Riddick should remain the pass catcher but with a lot of his targets looking likely to go elsewhere he’s not going to be a saviour. The joker in the pack here is Kerryon Johnson and how will he be used. In pre-season, he’s not been used like a bell cow or even like a player that’s going to get a big role. However, that’s where his draft position and talent would suggest he will end up, the question is will week one to that way. I’ve steered clear for week one since Blount and Riddick are capable of carrying the bulk while he gets more settled and since that run game is still not established. Not sure any of them will top 10 so if you have to go with one, you are very much TD dependant.
The Jets meanwhile have a lot less to talk about.
Sam Darnold has a chance to make a statement but also has a chance to start his career in an ugly way. Rookies don’t often set the world on fire in week one and I can’t see Darnold breaking that trend, however, he’s still going to score more than Mariota did this week.
Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunea look to be the top pass-catching options and since there’s not much else right now both could be double-digit plays. I’ve liked Anderson this year since he’s a WR1 on a team with a throwing QB who is going to have to throw often due to game script. Both have a high ceiling and while Enunwa has a low floor, if you’re 10 behind he may just be able to rescue you.
The running game for the Jets could be key. Both Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell will have relevance this week while Darnold beds in but how the split will play out is anybody's guess. Both may struggle to make 10 but there’s a chance one of them does and with his draft position a number of people may be relying on Crowell going beyond 10 points. Players swapping systems don’t always start quickly and I’m a little concerned for Crowell that Powell may be the week 1 play but honestly, toss a coin, it’ll give you as much of an idea as I have!
The defence is not an advisable play but I still can’t see them doing worse than the Saints or the Chargers did this weekend. I can’t even remember who is kicking for them nowadays but unless Janikowski has found a Jets outfit that person should be ok.
Rams vs Raiders
In Britain, a Ram Raid means quickly destroying something, stealing what you want from it and getting out of there quickly. With that in mind, this game may be able to use that as a narrative.
The Rams defence is a scary proposition so long as it has had the time and work to develop chemistry. The Raiders are certainly “experienced” but they do not have youth, pace or strength on their side. I’m expecting the Rams DST to hit double figures and top most of the DST that have gone so far.
Jared Goff is going to have to be my saviour in a lot of leagues but I drafted him for a reason. He has a lot of weapons, last season he got it together and when you’re not sure how the targets are going to be shared the one constant is the passer. With the Raiders defence being a mess and now Mack-less Goff may well run riot. I’ll be disappointed if he scores less than 24.
This, of course, means his receivers will be in line for good scores too. The issue with Cooks, Kupp and Woods is going to be who gets the big plays, the TDs, and the most receptions. With no data available with the three together it’s hard to know but they all have a case for being the guy to save your week. Cooks is the one I would have the most confidence in but with the way fantasy can go, watch Gerald Everett get 2 TDs...
Todd Gurley should be a monster. I made similar statements about DJ, Zeke, and Hunt but really none of them was so either Gurley is going to follow them or break that pattern. The latter seems more likely against this defence and with how good the offence looked last year. It’s not a given, but surely he has to score more than 20.
The Raiders shouldn’t take long to explain. If you’re relying on their defence I’d look towards next week. I’m not convinced they are going to see the Red zone enough to make Jordy Nelson relevant. Jared Cook and whatever other receivers they have not named Cooper may be in the same boat.
Derek Carr may well get picked off by this defence, especially if his receivers aren’t in tune but he should at least be throwing a lot due to game script. Amari Cooper will probably end up with the bulk of those targets, his value depends on if he can catch them. History dictates he won’t but we need 2018 data to really know. Cooper may well get 10 to 15 points so he should still help some people.
Now, this may be controversial but I can’t see Marshawn Lynch topping 6 points. The Rams should really hold him in check and with them likely to be chasing the game it’ll be all on Cooper and a mix of the other receivers. Doug Martin just generally will not be relevant m, perhaps ever.
You may want Greg the Leg on your team if the game goes the way it should, while the Raiders kicker is a fade.
Hopefully, that’s enough to give you an idea of what chance you stand this Monday. Anyone behind by 50 or more is only going to have a chance with Stafford/Goff and Gurley. There’s a number of ways a 10-20 point gap might get reeled in whether that be in your favour or against you. All I can say is good luck.
Lions vs Jets
The Lions improvements this offseason have been pretty decent, getting a handy running back combination, defensive-minded coach and dropping Eric Ebron like he drops passes.
Their Defence was a very popular streaming option and against rookie Sam Darnold you would expect a few turnovers. They should be good for 10-15 points in my eyes.
Matt Stafford was briefly the highest paid player in football (He’s now probably 20th) and I’ve tipped him to be Mr Consistent this year and be a top 10QB. With this in mind, I think he’s a low 20s scorer this week against a newly formed, rather untried Jets defence. He has the weapons and the talent to go higher, but if he’s all you have left and you’re 30 behind I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are often great to own as they always seem to end the season within a few spots of each other. However, it’s weekly the touchdowns that determine who is on top. It’s hard to second guess between the two but if you own either of them you’re likely to get over 10points.
Kenny Golladay may be in line to get some of the targets previously aimed at the Tight End although Luke Willson will still attract some of them. If you’re behind by double digits and either of these two is all you have left you are basically willing on a touchdown. It’s unlikely but not impossible.
A quick note on kickers. Get them out of your league. They’re seriously hard to predict and just create a mess! Joking aside Prater is still good.
The running game is going to be much harder to predict. Blount could start out as the 1st down back and get goal-line work. Riddick should remain the pass catcher but with a lot of his targets looking likely to go elsewhere he’s not going to be a saviour. The joker in the pack here is Kerryon Johnson and how will he be used. In pre-season, he’s not been used like a bell cow or even like a player that’s going to get a big role. However, that’s where his draft position and talent would suggest he will end up, the question is will week one to that way. I’ve steered clear for week one since Blount and Riddick are capable of carrying the bulk while he gets more settled and since that run game is still not established. Not sure any of them will top 10 so if you have to go with one, you are very much TD dependant.
The Jets meanwhile have a lot less to talk about.
Sam Darnold has a chance to make a statement but also has a chance to start his career in an ugly way. Rookies don’t often set the world on fire in week one and I can’t see Darnold breaking that trend, however, he’s still going to score more than Mariota did this week.
Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunea look to be the top pass-catching options and since there’s not much else right now both could be double-digit plays. I’ve liked Anderson this year since he’s a WR1 on a team with a throwing QB who is going to have to throw often due to game script. Both have a high ceiling and while Enunwa has a low floor, if you’re 10 behind he may just be able to rescue you.
The running game for the Jets could be key. Both Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell will have relevance this week while Darnold beds in but how the split will play out is anybody's guess. Both may struggle to make 10 but there’s a chance one of them does and with his draft position a number of people may be relying on Crowell going beyond 10 points. Players swapping systems don’t always start quickly and I’m a little concerned for Crowell that Powell may be the week 1 play but honestly, toss a coin, it’ll give you as much of an idea as I have!
The defence is not an advisable play but I still can’t see them doing worse than the Saints or the Chargers did this weekend. I can’t even remember who is kicking for them nowadays but unless Janikowski has found a Jets outfit that person should be ok.
Rams vs Raiders
In Britain, a Ram Raid means quickly destroying something, stealing what you want from it and getting out of there quickly. With that in mind, this game may be able to use that as a narrative.
The Rams defence is a scary proposition so long as it has had the time and work to develop chemistry. The Raiders are certainly “experienced” but they do not have youth, pace or strength on their side. I’m expecting the Rams DST to hit double figures and top most of the DST that have gone so far.
Jared Goff is going to have to be my saviour in a lot of leagues but I drafted him for a reason. He has a lot of weapons, last season he got it together and when you’re not sure how the targets are going to be shared the one constant is the passer. With the Raiders defence being a mess and now Mack-less Goff may well run riot. I’ll be disappointed if he scores less than 24.
This, of course, means his receivers will be in line for good scores too. The issue with Cooks, Kupp and Woods is going to be who gets the big plays, the TDs, and the most receptions. With no data available with the three together it’s hard to know but they all have a case for being the guy to save your week. Cooks is the one I would have the most confidence in but with the way fantasy can go, watch Gerald Everett get 2 TDs...
Todd Gurley should be a monster. I made similar statements about DJ, Zeke, and Hunt but really none of them was so either Gurley is going to follow them or break that pattern. The latter seems more likely against this defence and with how good the offence looked last year. It’s not a given, but surely he has to score more than 20.
The Raiders shouldn’t take long to explain. If you’re relying on their defence I’d look towards next week. I’m not convinced they are going to see the Red zone enough to make Jordy Nelson relevant. Jared Cook and whatever other receivers they have not named Cooper may be in the same boat.
Derek Carr may well get picked off by this defence, especially if his receivers aren’t in tune but he should at least be throwing a lot due to game script. Amari Cooper will probably end up with the bulk of those targets, his value depends on if he can catch them. History dictates he won’t but we need 2018 data to really know. Cooper may well get 10 to 15 points so he should still help some people.
Now, this may be controversial but I can’t see Marshawn Lynch topping 6 points. The Rams should really hold him in check and with them likely to be chasing the game it’ll be all on Cooper and a mix of the other receivers. Doug Martin just generally will not be relevant m, perhaps ever.
You may want Greg the Leg on your team if the game goes the way it should, while the Raiders kicker is a fade.
Hopefully, that’s enough to give you an idea of what chance you stand this Monday. Anyone behind by 50 or more is only going to have a chance with Stafford/Goff and Gurley. There’s a number of ways a 10-20 point gap might get reeled in whether that be in your favour or against you. All I can say is good luck.
Saturday, 8 September 2018
NFLUK Fantasy League
If you’ve followed my twitter feed you will have seen my NFLUK Fantasy League fantasy draft and the occasional pick explanation. Now I have a whole team I can give a little insight and analysis into my team.
It’s a 20 team game with effectively standard scoring but with a few quirks. 20 team leagues really do make having a deep squad really difficult. Teams I’ve picked up over the years have had the likes of Bruce Ellington on the bench and Sanu as the WR1…
Getting to draft from scratch and against other UK fantasy pundits too was both a thrill and a huge honor and I'm grateful to be involved and hope I can develop more both on this blog and in tandem with the other great content producers here in the UK.
Anyway, this is the team I ended up with and how I ended up with it.
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NFLUK
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The Fantasy Thinker
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Bye
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QB
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J.Goff (LAR)
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x12
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RB
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E.Elliott (DAL)
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x8
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RB/WR
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N.Agholor (PHI)
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x9
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WR
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A.Thielin (MIN)
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x10
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WR
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L.Fitzgerald (ARI)
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x9
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TE
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D.Walker (TEN)
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x8
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K
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D.Carlson (MIN)
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x10
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DST
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Broncos (DEN)
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x10
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BN
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J.Flacco (BAL)
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x10
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BN
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J.Rosen (ARI)
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x9
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BN
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C.Clement (PHI)
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x9
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BN
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J.Wilkins (IND)
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x9
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BN
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K.White (CHI)
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x5
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BN
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JJ.Nelson (ARI)
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x9
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BN
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A.Seferian-Jenkins (JAX)
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x9
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Pick 1.1 – Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
The pressure of having the first overall pick in a redraft
is quite high but it’s hard to make a bad decision. I ruled out Le’Veon Bell
since as a Steelers fan I feared what might be coming. I’m not a full Todd
Gurley believer since they really bulked up their receiving options so it came
to Zeke vs DJ since my 2nd pick wouldn’t be until another 39 names
were off the board and getting a playable RB1 after then isn’t straightforward.
I opted for Zeke purely because the Dallas passing game doesn’t look like it’s
up to much so I can see then feeding Zeke pretty much everything. The Cardinals
still have Fitz although that won’t stop DJ going for the 1000 + 1000. In
hindsight losing their starting centre Travis Fredericks makes me think I should
have gone for DJ instead of Zeke but only time will tell if I got this right.
Pick 2.20 – Adam Thielin, MIN
I got hooked on a Thielin here. The Minnesota man has been
in my higher tiers all off season despite his injuries after an impressive
season in 2017 and when he fell to pick 40 I knew that was a value not to miss.
Diggs, Rudolph and Thielin should all see plenty of the ball from Kirk Cousins
and I can easily see them all being elite options. The injury risk must have
been the reason for the fall, but even if he starts a little slow, Thielin will
be a great play most weeks.
Pick 3.1 – Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
The walking advert for the fountain of youth never seems to
fade into irrelevancy. Early in the off-season he wasn’t being drafted as most
felt he’d retire, but right now he’s still thinking about another year after
this one. With a limited number of options for Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen also
waiting in the wings I can see Fitz surpassing 100 yards again and being the
high scorer he’s been for so many years.
Pick 4.20 – Delanie Walker, TEN
After seeing another 39 people come off the board there was
a run on tight end and there was only one left who I felt to be a weekly
starting elite. In a 20 team league it’s very hard to stream positions so
Walker, being the best man available became a part of the team. Corey Davis,
Rishard Matthews and a mix at WR3 will arguable be the best receiving corps
Mariota has had in a while, but Walker is often a favoured target and usually a
safe play.
One of my “My Guys” this season. I’ve said in many places
that Agholor will finish the season above Alshon Jeffrey as the top WR for the
Eagles and I’ve been drafting him as such. He has a great chemistry with Wentz
and didn’t drop off much with Foles and he just has that look of a guy who
could pull off anything at any time. He’s dynamic and going to see a lot of
volume in a team with a good defence. These are all reasons why I want him on
my team.
Pick 6.20 – Jared Goff, LAR
6 rounds in it was time to get my QB and with most top
options gone it was time to pick another person I’m high on which many will not
agree with. The Rams have Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley
and Gerald Everett to throw the ball to and the one constant in all of that
will be the guy throwing the ball. They should have their offence on the field
a lot and with so many mouths to feed he’s got a lot of work to do. When you
don’t know which WR to draft, you might want to look at getting the QB.
Pick 7.1 – Jordan Wilkins, IND
At this stage it was time to fill the bench with a few small
gambles. Jordan Wilkins has he first crack at winning the Colts starting RB
job. Mack is still injured, Hines is out of favour and Christine Michael is
still not wide awake. It may take a few weeks but the role, volume and
opportunity are there for him to end up being a very valuable piece and I’m
willing in these deep leagues to be patient.
Pick 8.20 – Broncos DST, DEN
With an elite DST still on the board I decided to jump early
rather than wait even though waiting on the Bears as I had planned in hindsight
looks a good option. The Broncos have strengthened and have recently been a
defensively strong team. In theory it
may have been wise to wait but a run on defences may have left me stuck has I waited
the 39 picks and a weaker weekly starter. With 20 teams the streaming options
won’t be the prettiest.
Pick 9.1 – Corey Clement, PHI
I’ve been high on him all off season purely because someone has
to step up when Ajayi has his bad weeks. Ajayi is a beast when he’s on it, but
on other days who else do the Eagles have to take the load now Blount has gone?
Clement impressed me last year and looks a red zone and pass catching threat. Getting
a guy who I can see being a good flex or bye week option in the 9th
round in a 20 team league (Pick 161) I had to jump.
Pick 10.20 – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAX
It turned out that the Bears would last until round 14 so my
early call on Denver didn’t look so clever and in hindsight Keelan Cole should
have been the pick but still, it’s not terminal. Instead I went for a different
Jacksonville receiver, this time Tight End ASJ. With Marquise Lee down there is
one less mouth to feed and ASJ could be a decent option. With very few decent
RBs or WRs left on the board, going for what I felt to be the best TE keeps the
squad competitive and with Walker not always being healthy, it allows that to
not ruin the team.
Pick 11.1 – Joe Flacco, BAL
This is where being in deeper leagues hurts. The only starting
QB remaining was Flacco and despite my massive hatred for the guy, I had to
take him. If I didn’t week 11 when Goff was on bye would be a punt. If most teams
pickup a 2nd QB you have to follow. I hated the pick but I would
have hated punting week 11 more.
Pick 12.10 – Josh Rosen, ARI
As it turned out, Josh Rosen was not taken by the Birdgang
and I had the choice to take him. Sam Bradford has a well documented injury
history so Rosen should get his shot this season and it may well be before week
11 comes. It allows Flacco to be a trade chip when teams need a bye week QB and
I should be able to use Rosen later on. If not then I have Flacco. It’s
covering off a risk and opening up an opportunity. With such little at RB and
WR it felt the best use of a bench spot.
Pick 13.1 – JJ Nelson, ARI
At this stage I was hunting for WR2s on teams and after his
early form last season I felt JJ Nelson was an option. I was hoping Ryan Grant
would fall to me but when that failed I have to take a guess at the Arizona
WR2. They have 3 options in Nelson, Kirk and Williams and it looks like it’ll
be a rotation and with Williams on the waiver wire I’ll have a ticket for that
lottery.
Pick 14.10 – Kevin White, CHI
This was a different type of gamble, but with the limited
options, it’s more finding anyone who could be relevant. White has returned
from injury and had an impressive off season and may just get a shot to be what
everyone hoped he might be when he was drafted 7th overall in 2015. While
he’s got fitness and a place on the team he’s worth a flier. After Allen
Robinson the Bears only really have rookie Anthony Miller and Gadget guy Taylor
Gabriel. White may end up an effective WR2 for that team, especially if his
pre-season form translates into the regular season.
Pick 15.1 - Daniel Carlson, MIN
And finally, I had to pick a kicker and of the options left
I thought I’d take a punt on Daniel Carlson. Rookie kickers (not names Aguayo)
seem to do pretty well and the Vikings should be offensively strong so it was
one of those “why not him” moments. I mean, if a team can drop Kai Forbath who
really helped me out last year, then he must be good, right?
So that’s my team. With 20 team leagues they’ll always look
difficult but compared to the other 16, 20 and 24 teams I have on fleaflicker
this seems much deeper and has a better type of risk. There may be work to do
and holding 3QBs goes against the grain but is more of a longer term thought.
It’s going to be a full league to interact with and I’ll probably provide a few
updates through the year.
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