Monday Maybes

Patriots @ Bills

It’s the Bills against the Patriots. You don’t need me to tell me what to do, do you?

Play any Patriots (who are healthy). If you are relying on any of the Bills I send you my condolences. 

I’m currently on a country retreat and access to the internet is rather patchy so as a result I won’t be around much this week. There will be no Waiver Fire, Hype Train or Thursday Night Fix this week. 

I’ll be back for the week 10 edition of Waiver Fire. There may be some exciting news (for me at least) on that when we get there. 

I’ll be on Twitter (occasionally) if you need me but for now. Good luck in week 9.

Solving the Puzzle - Week 8

Sorry, it's not as in-depth this week, anyone who has seen my personal profiles will know why. Still got some tips and a little question for you to have a go at. 

Fixtures:

Philadelphia	@	Jacksonville
New York	@	Chicago
Tampa Bay	@	Cincinnati
Seattle	@	Detroit
Denver	@	Kansas City
Washington	@	New York
Cleveland	@	Pittsburgh
Baltimore	@	Carolina
Indianapolis	@	Oakland
Green Bay	@	Los Angeles
San Francisco	@	Arizona
New Orleans	@	Minnesota
New England	@	Buffalo

Trick Question
Steelers @ Browns
Both defenses don’t have a great reputation this season but secretly both are getting the job done. The Browns have had some tough matchups while the Steelers have been recovering from a rocky start. The Steelers offense is as on point as you would expect with Ben, AB, JuJu, Connor, and co. You have to play those guys but I don’t see them going off just because it’s the Browns. On the other side people may be tempted to play the Browns offensive players here but unless Mayfield gets things together in the passing game there isn’t a lot of value in the dawg pound.

Broken Pieces
Sadly not got the time this week to go into depth like I intend to so keep an eye on twitter and the usual outlets. I often quite like using http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries.

Depth Options/Late Waivers
Ronald Jones (TB) -Probably not owned in many leagues but with Peyton Barber nursing an injury he has an opening. He got the first rushing TD by an RB for Tb last week and they could be a pattern. Barber hasn’t been great and time has passed since Jones’ terrible pre-season.

Spencer Ware (KC) - The Chiefs offense is so good and so on fire, they are even making irrelevant players fantasy relevant. If they get up by a big amount or just feel like resting Kareem Hunt for a little while (as Andy Reid has a tendency to do at times) then Ware will see work. He scored 12 fantasy points last week even with Hunt going off. So if you’re desperate for a late plugin due to injury he’s a decent flier every week. Especially now the Chiefs are reaching the point where they may want to rest people for the playoffs.

Cameron Meredith (NO) - There’s been a lot of hype for Tre’Quan Smith this week with Ted Ginn going down. However, there is another usable WR the Saints may use. Last week Smith took off and saw all the WR2 work, but the week before Smith was active but Meredith caught 5 passes for 71 yards and 10pts and yet didn’t get a lot of notice. The Saints may alternate the focal point which would suggest it’s a week for Meredith.

Paul Richardson (WAS) - So long as he is cleared to play Richardson will see a fair few targets from Alex Smith this week. He’s debatably been their best receiver this season and will provide the deep option and great TD upside. He got dropped heavily last week so may be out there.

Nick Vannett (SEA) - This is a desperate, deep play but TE is a desperate position. The Seahawks saw a lot of success early in the season with Will Dissley and after he went down Vannett also has health struggles. They now have a pass catching TE in the line-up and still a limited set of wide receiver options. Vannett got work last year even with Jimmy Graham around so he’s a TD upside play if nothing else.

Week 8 Puzzle:
What will be the answer to this question:
What will be the total of the jersey numbers for the top fantasy scorers at each position? (QB+RB+WR+TE in PPR).

Thursday Night Fix - Week 8

Dolphins @ Texans

Miami

The Dolphins are quickly running out of wide receivers. With someone like Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, it wouldn’t matter but this is Brock Osweiler and no matter how much better he is doing, he’s not going to save them. Danny Amendola and Jakeem Grant should be the 1–2 punch and Devante Parker May finally see the field but don’t expect much from him.

Kenyan Drake might end up being their best performer this week although there is the risk that the Texans will get away quickly and force Brock to throw the rock. The other risk, of course, is the Texans defensive line! Frank Gore has a name suitable for Halloween next week but with an injury designation and game script issues, he is too scary to play.

The Defence have had good days and bad days. Kiko Alonso has been putting together a fantastic season but you can only keep people at bay for so long. They are terrible against the run and mediocre against the pass.


Houston 

The main thing for the Texans is how fit and mobile will DeShaun Watson be with his punctured lung. He’s set to play but we don’t know what his limitations will be. If he’s your QB1 then you have to play him. This is a game he could still excel in.

Hopkins and Fuller should still be there as the quality 1-2 attack but Keke Coutee is our injured so the Texans will need to roll with a different WR3 since they have no TE to target (Griffin ruled out). Only the usual two are playable and you really have to play them if you have either of them.

Lamar Miller has a big week last week with 100 rushing yards on 22 attempts and a TD against the Jaguars who aren’t exactly pushovers. Alfred Blue has returned to taking a back seat and D’onta Foreman might not return straight away. Miller is almost a “Must play”.

The defense has been pretty strong and this week they are one of my top options. They won’t be available in many leagues but if you have them or can have them then they are a good option. A depleted Dolphins offense and Brock Osweiler as the opposing QB going against JJ Watt and Clowney.

The Hype Train Station - Week 8

Week 8 and as I look at the departure board it appears every train labeled 2019 1st round pick is heading for Oakland. The trade deadline has caused a lot of traffic and with injuries also factored in the air is rather cloudy. I’ll attempt to find some lighting for the platforms so you can see how popular a few trains are.


Standing Room only - Kerryon Johnson
Johnson has over 180 yards in week 7 and despite no touchdown, he nearly made 20 fantasy points. His only real negative is Blount getting goal-line carries but if Johnson keeps playing the way he is they may not need a goal-line back too often and they might let him take that role.

Reservations Recommended - Marlon Mack
Jordan Wilkins hasn’t impressed and Nyhiem Hines is maybe more of a passing game player so the return of the Mack improves that Attack. This week he had 159 all-purpose yards and 2 TDs. He was a stud last week and may well repeat going forwards, even if it was against the Bills. 
NB: His mid-week downgrade from limited to DNP makes his immediate prospects questionable but when fit, the train will be rolling.

Ready to depart - Raheem Mostert
This has a health warning that the train doesn’t go super far but the ticket shouldn’t cost a lot either and there should be plenty of chances to get off at intermediate stations. With Breida injured and really needing a break Mostert is about all the 49ers have but even when Breida returns we know Shanahan likes using two backs and now he has a legit 2nd option, Mostert has a chance to be usable for the rest of the season.

Delayed - Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson hasn’t really got going yet. On the season he has 25 catches for 285 yards and 2TDs. He’s still getting niggling injuries and with Gabriel and Cohen becoming the feature players for Trubisky, Robinson risks being left behind. He could well pick it up though.

Canceled - LeSean McCoy
McCoy is in concussion protocol as I wrote this but has been in regression all season. He’s had no games with more than 13 fantasy points and you’d expect much more than that. He’s gone over the age hill and the number of hits he’s taken in his career is really starting to show. Add in the fact that the Bills offense is a Dumpster fire and you find very little reason to feel optimistic about Shady.

The Sleeper Train - Anthony Miller
I wanted to pick Tre’Quan Smith but after his breakout in recent games he’s not really a sleeper anymore so since that train is already pulling away I’ve got back on the footbridge and onto another platform. This train doesn’t have a lot of passengers and although it’s quite shiny and new it’s got a few scratches. Anthony Miller has a good start in Chicago before missing the Tampa Bay game. He returned after the bye and grabbed a TD pass but hasn’t seen a lot of targets. With Allen Robinson above being delayed, there’s a chance of other trains on the Chicago line to get away and Miller is next in the queue (Gabriel and Cohen have long since gone).

Waiver Fire - Week 8

Week 7 Review:
QBs:
Bortles (1.4), Mayfield (20.9)
I think the less that is said about Bortles the better. The comeback game never materialized and now Bortles' confidence appears to be shot. Mayfield meanwhile was a top 8 option in an unusually low scoring week for QBs.

RBs:
Smith (6.5) Chubb (14), Gore (4.3)
Gores day was affected by injury but Chubb and Smith lit this section up. Both saw the end zone and should be playable options on a weekly basis.

WRs:
Kearse (0), Goodwin (4.4), Rodgers (8)
Kearse had 2 targets and a goose egg. Goodwin didn’t see any action until late in the game and Chester Rodgers was rendered ineffective by TY Hilton and Marlon Mack.

TEs:
Howard (11.7), Uzomah (9.3), Hurst (0)
Howard is a bit TD dependant and he came up dry this time but TE10 isn't bad. Uzomah was undone by Dalton being terrible in prime time games but was 1 place lower at TE11. Hurst is still going to need time to settle into the offense so isn't an option just yet sadly.

DSTs:
Colts (16), Chargers (3), Lions (4)
The Lions were the 12th ranked DST this week despite the low score. The Colts were the DST #3, proving the logic of picking whoever plays the Bills still works.


Week 8
On to week 8 now and while I’m trying to avoid repetition there are only so many available players to go around. 


Bye Week: Steelers, Packers, Seahawks, Raiders.

QBs
Case Keenum (DEN)
Keenum hasn’t been as impressive as I had hoped this season after he gave me a helping hand to a Championship Game last season while in Minnesota. This week the Broncos play the Chiefs which is always a good matchup for the opposing QB. I’d expect Keenum to add to his 8 passing TDs so far this season and it may finally be a game where Demaryius Thomas can get involved.

RBs
Jalen Richard (OAK)
In PPR leagues I prefer Richard over Doug Martin with Lynch out for a few weeks. The trade of Amari Cooper further opens up the passing game which only further promotes Richards cause. A lot of people will be pinning Martavious Bryant to have a big role in Cooper's absence but in reality, it’s Richard, Cook, and Nelson that will benefit. It’s too dangerous to trust Marty. Sorry.

Kenjon Barner (NE)
Provided the Patriots don’t trade for another running back and Michel does miss the week 8 matchup against Buffalo, Barner is a playable option off waivers. James White will still dominate touches by a reasonable amount but Barner is just about all the Patriots have left in terms of a committee. The passing game gets a big uptick and if Chris Hogan is out there he may be a sneaky grab too but don’t be spending FAAB or a high priority on Barner, it’s only going to be a temporary fix.

WRs
Tre'Quan Smith (NO)
Ted Ginn went onto injured reserve last week which effectively makes Smith the WR2 for the Saints. In the last 3 games, he’s seen 11 targets, catching 6 for 155yds and 2TDs. The same period has seen Meredith grab 9 out of 10 targets for 114 and a TD. They would be close but despite Meredith being on the field, Smith was the only WR to see targets other than Michael Thomas while Meredith only played 18 snaps in total. Smith has built rapport quickly with Brees and should get better now he has this huge opportunity.

Danny Amendola (MIA)
Sorry Devante Parker truthers, he isn’t going to be the guy to pick up in Miami. Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills are going to miss this weeks game against Houston so they may be left with no choice but to play Parker but he’s still low in the pecking order. Amendola becomes the most viable top dog and is still available in a lot of leagues. The WR1 on a team being available so far has been something only Buffalo has managed but this should be a better situation. Jakeem Grant is another sneaky option to have in deeper leagues.

TE
Mike Gesicki (MIA)
If the team are as low on Parker as think, then there could be a bigger role in the passing game for the Tight Ends. If AJ Derby is fit then he’s an option but in this years draft the Dolphins took Gesicki in the 2nd round for his pass catching ability and this is perhaps the time to unleash it. He is nursing a slight shoulder injury which is worth keeping an eye on but if that doesn’t appear to be much of a problem then he’s a decent flier in a tricky week for streaming tight ends.

Ben Watson (NO)
Watson should be available in most leagues and after catching Drew Brees 500th touchdown pass he showed how useful he can be. Losing Ginn does increase the role for the Tight end but it’s still a volatile situation since Sean Payton has a plan list going beyond Plan ZZ.

DST
Colts (IND)
If you took the Colts last week and enjoy the 13 points they gave you then it may not be a bad idea to stick with them for another week as they play an Oakland team who might as well be renamed the “Traiders”. Grammar aside, the Raiders offense is in pieces and doesn’t seem to have a clear direction. Explosions tend to be unpredictable. The Colts defense isn’t a bad unit which only adds fuel to the (dumpster) fire.

Patriots (NE)
The Patriots ran riot against the Bears offense last week despite giving up 31 points. This week they are the team facing the Bills and Derek Anderson. The Pats are owned in less than 50% of games so they may well be out there. They may not be for long.


Just a genteel reminder to look out for the likes of Vance McDonald, Jared Cook and Geronimo Allison on your wires since they maybe have been dropped for last weeks byes.

Similarly look to see who gets dropped this week. With the Titans, Chargers, Falcons, and Cowboys all on byes, you may have some interesting options in the 2nd waiver wire phase.

Look out for the Hype Train which will hopefully arrive tomorrow if I don’t drop my phone on the tracks like I did this morning (oops). Then on Friday/Saturday look out for the latest “Solving the Puzzle” which I’m hoping to tweak and improve after last weeks first run.

Monday Maybes - Week 7

Giants @ Falcons

New York

Eli Manning (Proj. 19)
Eli hasn’t been good this year but neither has the Atlanta defence. This matchup should give Eli a chance to put up points in a typical Falcons shootout game.

Saquon Barkley (Proj. 28)
Barkley seems to prove that some players have talents that can transcend the poor play around him. It’s either that or he is making the offensive line better but I think he’s just making the most of every good opportunity he is getting.

Odell Beckham Jr (Proj. 25)
OBJ has been very indifferent this season but after a few misses, he should be a hit here.

Sterling Shepard (Proj. 14)
If you have the ability to add a player yet or are deciding between Shepard and Sanu/Ridley I’d probably still fancy the TD upside of Ridley but Shepard probably has the safest floor and an appealing ceiling.

Evan Engram (Proj. 15)
Engram returns after a few weeks out injured and o can see him getting straight to it, wasting no time. With no clear WR3 (especially if Russell Shepard is injured), Engram is likely to see a lot of work.

DST (Proj. 0)
I can’t say I have high hopes for either defence in this game. There may well be turnovers and sacks to keep the score respectable, but the points against could be ugly.


Atlanta

Matt Ryan (Proj. 26)
If it wasn’t for Pat Mahomes we’d be talking about Matt Ryan a lot more. He’s QB2 which is helped by the shootout games he’s having to get into due to the losses on defence. This matchup is set up to be another one of those games.

Ito Smith (Proj. 14)
With Freeman on IR, there’s a chance for the future to shine. With Tevin Coleman due to leave at the end of this season, Smith was planned to be his replacement. However, he’s got his chance early and if you look at his last 3 games, he is already making the most of it.

Tevin Coleman (Proj. 14)
Coleman has been underwhelming after the loss of Freeman but this game seems a little more suited to his game. Letting Smith take the Freeman role and thus letting Coleman return to his old role could be a golden strategy in the long run.

Julio Jones (Proj. 24)
He may have an allergy to the Endzone but you can’t argue with his catch stats. He’s a very good possession receiver and in PPR he has enough receptions to make up for the lack of TD upside. He’s still a weekly play and that one week he gets a TD will be huge. This week could be that week.

Mohamed Sanu (Proj. 8)
Sanu has nursed an injury most of this week and while he’s been cleared I think Julio and Ridley may steal the show this week.

Calvin Ridley (Proj. 14)
The less concerning of the two injured players and the higher upside when it comes to scoring. The Giants give up enough TDs to make Ridley look very appealing.

Austin Hooper (Proj. 10)
Hooper could get nothing or could go off. I’ve gone for the happy medium as he has to hit that sometimes.



Since @Jimandtheking we’re the only group to put in a guess for the quiz posted in Solving the Puzzle they win by default. Answers are irrelevant so will just try to get more interest next time:

I’m going to reduce it to one question a week to make the twitter interactivity easier but hopefully, people are getting the idea and are more inclined to read the “Solving the Puzzle” article.

Waiver Fire will be coming up tomorrow with the Hype Train Station following on Wednesday so look out for those.

Solving The Puzzle - Week 7

So I’ve decided to take a pin to the full “Thought Bubble” articles and hopefully make something a bit more enjoyable to read (and write).

With the Hype Train, Monday Maybes and Waiver Fire being popular articles I’m hoping that “Solving the Puzzle” will be just as liked and complete the set.

Solving the puzzle will attempt to come up with the logical arguments and find some of the facts you’ll need towards setting your line-up for Sunday. Which matchups are a few pieces short of a jigsaw and which players are holding the top trump card? This is still a work in progress but here is the week 7 puzzle.

Fixtures:

Tennessee	@	LA Chargers
New England	@	Chicago
Buffalo	@	Indianapolis
Detroit	@	Miami
Minnesota	@	New York Jets
Carolina	@	Philadelphia
Cleveland	@	Tampa Bay
Houston	@	Jacksonville
New Orleans	@	Baltimore
LA Rams	@	San Francisco
Dallas	@	Washington
Cincinnati	@	Kansas City
New York Giants	@	Atlanta

Handy Hints:

Here are a few players who may be worth starting this week with a few clues as to why.

Kerryon Johnson (DET) – The Dolphins are one of the worse teams at defending the run but arguably one of the strongest against the pass. With Theo Riddick likely to miss out it’s up to Johnson and Blount and Kerryon should have a great chance to assert some authority.

Taylor Gabriel (CHI) – Unlike the Dolphins, the Patriots can’t really defend the pass to well and Trubisky should have plenty of time to pick out some passes. With Allen Robinson questionable, expect Gabriel to be a key part of the game plan.

Duke Johnson (CLE) – With the big news of Carlos Hyde being traded to the Jaguars it’s now up to Duke and Chubb to advance the Browns on the ground. Chubb can pull off big plays but really in these early days without Hyde, you have to expect Duke to get most of the work.

Jermaine Kearse (NYJ) – With Terrelle Pryor being released, Quincey Enunwa out injured and no clear tight end option the Jets now have Kearse and Robby Anderson as their primary pass catchers. They face a Vikings team missing a number of key players on defence and who aren’t playing to the best of their ability either.

Jordan Reed (WAS) – Crowder and Richardson are both missing, Thompson is questionable and Doctson is just disappointing so really, who else can Alex Smith pass to?

Stirling Shepard (NYG) – You can play anyone against the Atlanta defence currently and so OBJ and Engram are good plays too but Shepard is on a few benches but may be worth squeezing into the flex if you feel you can.

Antonio Callaway (CLE) – Play any receiver against Tampa Bay. Landry is heavily owned and is due a big week which leaves Callaway as the next option either off waivers or off the bench. He might only have 3 catches but those could be 2 long touchdowns and a big connection.

The Trick Question:

Colts vs Bills

I’d be very careful before thinking about firing up the Colts. The Bills are currently a top 10 defence if you look at the stats. Luck, Hilton and Ebron are weekly starters but may not reach the heights you would expect and Hines and Mack aren’t slam dunks either. Also, bear in mind Derek Anderson May play conservatively to settle in and opportunities and points may be hard to come by for both teams.

Broken Pieces:

This is going to be a list of Injuries to look for over the weekend. I’ve removed people already ruled out and I’ll post their latest situation and where you need to be planning alternatives:

Hopefully, over the week you’ll have heard the news on people ruled out already, including Devonta Freeman, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Cooper Kupp, Quincey Enunwa, Ted Ginn, Ryan Tannehill and Josh Allen.

Player (Team)	Position	Designation	Comment
Calvin Ridley (ATL)	WR	Healthy
Mohamed Sanu (ATL)	WR	Healthy
Greg Olsen (CAR)	TE	Healthy
Allen Robinson (CHI)	WR	Questionable	Game time Decision
Khalil Mack (CHI)*	DST	Questionable	Game time Decision
Giovani Bernard (CIN)	RB	OUT
CJ Uzomah (CIN)	TE	Healthy
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)	WR	Healthy
Keke Coutee (HOU)	WR	Healthy
Will Fuller (HOU)	WR	Healthy
Ryan Grant (IND)	WR	OUT
TJ Yeldon (JAX)	RB	Healthy
Melvin Gordon (LAC)	RB	Questionable	Late Decision, Pessimistic.
Vikings DST (MIN)*	DST	Q x4
Sony Michel (NE)	RB	Questionable	Expected to Play
Julian Edelman (NE)	WR	Questionable	Expected to Play
Josh Gordon (NE)	WR	Questionable	Expected to Play
Rob Gronkowski (NE)	TE	Doubtful
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ)	RB	Questionable	Expected to Play
Pierre Garcon (SF)	WR	Questionable	Game Time Decision
Dante Pettis (SF)	WR	OUT
George Kittle (SF)	TE	Healthy
Matt Breida (SF)	RB	Healthy
Chris Thompson (WAS)	RB	Doubtful
Adrian Peterson (WAS)	RB	Questionable	Expected to Play
Jamison Crowder (WAS)	WR	OUT
Paul Richardson (WAS)	WR	Doubtful

Week 7 Quiz:

Just to end on a bit of fun I’m going to post a few quiz questions for people to have a guess at.

For these take the shirt number of the player you feel will top that statistic and follow the instructions. These are for the Sunday games as I’ll give the answers and a shoutout to the closest scorer during Monday Maybes.

1. QB with most passing yards X Wide Receiver with most receiving yards
2. RB with must rushing yards + TE with most receptions
3. First DST player to score a TD - QB with most interceptions

Good Luck with that. Send in your answers by commenting on here or tweeting me @FFthinker with the hashtag #nflpuzzle