It’s been another topsy-turvy week in the NFL where some things you thought you knew, you really didn’t. Some of my calls this week were on the mark, the others were more like a Mason Crosby field goal attempt. Let’s see how Monday night goes.
Redskins @ Saints
Drew Brees and the Saints host Alex Smith and the Redskins in a game which in most seasons you would have felt was easy to predict. This year you have to throw that notion out the window.
Washington:
Alex Smith is pretty much a vanilla QB. He won’t screw you over but it’s rare he’ll ignite your week, he hasn’t got a lot of accompaniments to excite you and even his name is a bit plain. All that being said if he’s your QB this week you have no choice but to roll with him and you’re hoping the bye week has given them a chance to work on a few things. Through 3 games Smith has 4 TDs, one each to Richardson, Crowder, Reed and Thompson. That needs to pick up but this Saints defence hasn’t been what it was last year so the opportunity is there.
If that is the case Paul Richardson is a decent shout if you need points as his deep play ability is what the Saints appear to be weak at currently. Jordan Reed leads the team in receiving yards which is what tends to happen when he’s not injured. He’s still fit and able to play so if you have him as your TE then you can be assured of getting some points. He’s certainly the better play of the 2 TEs here. Jamieson Crowder has 79 receiving yards across 3 games which is less than Vernon Davis the backup TE. For a person drafted with high hopes in a middle round, this needs to be the Week he breaks out. The other WR Josh Doctson is nursing an injury again and looks set to miss this game which boosts the prospects of Richardson, Reed and Crowder.
The other person that will benefit is Chris Thompson. Like Reed if he’s fit he’s hard to sit and so far this year he’s had 20 catches for 155 yards (2nd most yard and most receptions on the team) to add to the 83 rushing yards on 15 attempts. He’s RB23, 5 spots behind team-mate Adrian Peterson who has made the most of his return to a starting role thanks to the loss of Derrius Guice. APs rushing stats are 236 yards (12th in NFL) and 3TDs (T5th in NFL) which when you add on 5 catches for 100 receiving yards makes him a useful commodity. Also, bear in mind that those stats are with one less game due to the bye week. In terms of RB/WR/TE he’s the 3rd best start in this game behind Kamara and Thomas (yes, I have him ahead of Ingram and Thompson) so hopefully, that will help any late lineup decisions.
The defence ranks in the top 12 and has had a good start to the season. Their biggest issue is the power of that Saints offence and the question will also be whether the bye week has helped rest them, or has them missing a step.
Projected Points:
Alex Smith: 16
Adrian Peterson: 17
Chris Thompson: 14
Jamieson Crowder: 10
Paul Richardson: 15
Jordan Reed: 6
Dustin Hopkins: 5
Redskins DST: 3
New Orleans:
The big news in the big easy is that Mark Ingram is back from suspension and the tandem with him and Alvin Kamara is back together again. I’m not convinced he will be able to make a big impact in his first game back but I suppose with a bye week next week you give him as much game action as you can so he isn’t cold in week 7. If he’s what you have left you have to play him, certainly ahead of any WR/TE apart from Michael Thomas in the flex, or as your RB2 if you have no other option in tonight’s game. Alvin Kamara has been sensational so far and Ingram will dent that a little bit but this week he should still be putting up big numbers. 606 all-purpose yards and 6TDs makes me wonder if questioning his ability to keep up with his pace from last season was ill-judged.
Kamara has the 2nd most receiving yards on the Saints behind Michael Thomas and you would have to argue beyond those two there isn’t a lot of playable fantasy options for the Saints. Ted Ginn has already been ruled out so Cameron Meredith will have to step up now he’s had some game time. Ben Watson is TE17 and is 3rd on the team in receptions so at a push he’s an option. What you’re left with essentially is a very potent Drew Brees to Michael Thomas combination which you don’t need me to tell you, if you own them, you play them.
The defence as I mentioned earlier has not lived up to what they delivered last season and they currently rank 29th. There is a handy pattern emerging though. Against TB and Atlanta who have proven to be strong on offence this year, they’ve been terrible, but against weaker offences in the Browns and Giants this season they do much better. The Redskins would fall into that latter category so they should be a safe but not spectacular play this week. If you have a choice between both defences tonight I’d be inclined to go with the Saints.
Projected Points:
Drew Brees: 16
Alvin Kamara: 20
Mark Ingram: 6
Michael Thomas: 17
Cam Meredith: 6
Austin Carr/Tre'Quan Smith: 5/3
Ben Watson: 6
Wil Lutz: 7
Saints DST: 8
My numbers predict a 31-17 win for the Saints which may be a bit too predictable for the 2018 NFL season but time will tell. All that’s left for week 5 is to say good luck to everyone tonight and see you tomorrow for some week 6 waiver wire options.
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