Pre-Draft Positional Review – QB

This is one of the most interesting drafts in terms of Quarterbacks there has been for a while. Many (including myself) expect an early run on the top quality guys as there's no shortage of teams who are after QB's either for now or for a changing of the guard which is not far away.

The current QB landscape (in my eyes) looks like this:

Team	2018 Starter	2018 Backup	Draft
ARI	Sam Bradford	Mike Glennon
ATL	Matt Ryan	Matt Schaub
BAL	Joe Flacco	Robert Griffin III
BUF	AJ McCarron	Nathan Peterman
CAR	Cam Newton	Garrett Gilbert
CHI	Mitchell Trubisky	Chase Daniel
CIN	Andy Dalton	Jeff Driskel
CLE	Tyrod Taylor	Drew Stanton
DAL	Dak Prescott	Cooper Rush
DEN	Case Keenum	Paxton Lynch/Chad Kelly
DET	Matthew Stafford	Jake Rudock/Matt Cassel
GB	Aaron Rodgers	DeShone Kizer
HOU	Deshaun Watson	Brandon Weeden
IND	Andrew Luck	Jacoby Brissett
JAX	Blake Bortles	Cody Kessler
KC	Patrick Mahomes II	Chad Henne
LAC	Philip Rivers	Cardale Jones
LAR	Jared Goff	Brandon Allen
MIA	Ryan Tannehill	Brock Osweiler
MIN	Kirk Cousins	Trevor Siemien
NE	Tom Brady	Brian Hoyer
NO	Drew Brees	Tom Savage
NYG	Eli Manning	Davis Webb
NYJ	Josh McCown	Teddy Bridgewater
OAK	Derek Carr	Connor Cook
PHI	Carson Wentz	Nick Foles
PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	Landry Jones/Josh Dobbs
SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	CJ Betheard
SEA	Russell Wilson	Stephen Morris
TB	Jameis Winston	Ryan Fitzpatrick
TEN	Marcus Mariota	Blaine Gabbert
WAS	Alex Smith	Colt McCoy

In the Draft column those teams in Green I am near certain will draft a QB next week, those in Yellow could be considered likely and those in white are less likely.

So what does it all mean?

Thankfully the QB market has been discussed a lot this off season so it won’t take a lot of explaining. Each team has a potential starter and so there isn’t a lot of room for any of the rookies to break in and become an instant starter. However, the Browns, Bills and the Jets offer the three most promising opportunities and those three teams are going to draft quite high up the order. The likes of the Giants, Patriots, Chargers and Steelers may be looking for the replacement when their current starter retires. Cincinnati, Baltimore and New Orleans could also be included in that category.

Miami, Denver and Arizona have had a fair bit of off season talk and the latter two both signed starters and have backups available so it’s not the priority it once was. However both teams may have an eye on the future and their new QBs don’t have very long contracts so some extra competition would not come as a surprise to many. The Dolphins had to re-structure Tannehill’s contract to make their cap space a little more friendly but it means they are committed to him financially for another 3 years, and returning from injury, that suggests they are confident in rolling with him (or tanking).

So who is out there?

The only QB who is remotely startable on the free agent list is still Colin Kaepernick but with the baggage he comes with and the circus that would follow I can’t see him being signed ever again so we’re looking at the rookies.

Player	Status
Colin Kaepernick	FA
Baker Mayfield	Rookie
Josh Allen	Rookie
Josh Rosen	Rookie
Kyle Lauletta	Rookie
Lamar Jackson	Rookie
Luke Falk	Rookie
Mason Rudolph	Rookie
Mike White	Rookie
Sam Darnold	Rookie

This list is in alphabetical order and I don’t want to give you a false set of rankings, however here’s the abridged version of my thoughts.

Josh Rosen is probably the only QB on the list who could start instantly and is a polished product. He has a high floor but by no means the highest ceiling. Josh Allen has a huge arm and similarly huge potential but is still remarkably raw and would need a year of being mentored before he’s NFL ready.

Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson have their suitors and offer more versatile play but will both require work. Mason Rudolph will be a great project for one of the teams willing to wait and is maybe the guy I’m most keen to see where he goes. The last of the main hitters is Sam Darnold and while he could go first overall and some say he’s ready to start in the NFL, he would probably still benefit from some more time on the sidelines before being thrown out into the lions den.

The likes of Lauletta, Falk and White are later round prospects teams may want to throw a dice at but really there are 6 QBs people will be after and 13 teams I’ve highlighted as potentially drafting one. For this reason you can expect an early run on the quality QBs and I expect all 6 will have gone before the end of the 2^nd round.

How might it play out?

I’m terrible at draft predictions however here’s my guess:

Player	Status
Baker Mayfield	Bills
Josh Allen	Giants
Josh Rosen	Jets
Lamar Jackson	Arizona
Mason Rudolph	Dolphins
Sam Darnold	Browns

Darnold goes #1 overall. He isn’t the best in my eyes but the Browns have never had a habit of picking QBs correctly. The Giants then take Josh Allen as a project, aiming for the ceiling. The Jets at three then go for Josh Rosen and look to start him over Bridgewater and McCown. The Bills make a move and choose between Mayfield and Jackson, ending up going for Mayfield with the other options falling to the Cardinals. This leaves a fight between a few teams for Mason Rudolph who I suspect may end up as a Dolphin, although teams such as the Steelers and Chargers could try and put themselves into player for him too.

This is all guesswork and the answers wont be clear until the draft on Thursday night, however you can guarantee one thing; it's going be very interesting to watch.