A question I see multiple times every week without fail is the customary Monday morning “What’s the chances?” Monday night games help earn the NFL the TV money but it doesn’t half leave some fantasy games hanging in the balance. With this in mind, rather than answer each one individually I’m going to post a “Monday Maybes” article so hopefully, you can figure out what your chances are.
Lions vs Jets
The Lions improvements this offseason have been pretty decent, getting a handy running back combination, defensive-minded coach and dropping Eric Ebron like he drops passes.
Their Defence was a very popular streaming option and against rookie Sam Darnold you would expect a few turnovers. They should be good for 10-15 points in my eyes.
Matt Stafford was briefly the highest paid player in football (He’s now probably 20th) and I’ve tipped him to be Mr Consistent this year and be a top 10QB. With this in mind, I think he’s a low 20s scorer this week against a newly formed, rather untried Jets defence. He has the weapons and the talent to go higher, but if he’s all you have left and you’re 30 behind I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are often great to own as they always seem to end the season within a few spots of each other. However, it’s weekly the touchdowns that determine who is on top. It’s hard to second guess between the two but if you own either of them you’re likely to get over 10points.
Kenny Golladay may be in line to get some of the targets previously aimed at the Tight End although Luke Willson will still attract some of them. If you’re behind by double digits and either of these two is all you have left you are basically willing on a touchdown. It’s unlikely but not impossible.
A quick note on kickers. Get them out of your league. They’re seriously hard to predict and just create a mess! Joking aside Prater is still good.
The running game is going to be much harder to predict. Blount could start out as the 1st down back and get goal-line work. Riddick should remain the pass catcher but with a lot of his targets looking likely to go elsewhere he’s not going to be a saviour. The joker in the pack here is Kerryon Johnson and how will he be used. In pre-season, he’s not been used like a bell cow or even like a player that’s going to get a big role. However, that’s where his draft position and talent would suggest he will end up, the question is will week one to that way. I’ve steered clear for week one since Blount and Riddick are capable of carrying the bulk while he gets more settled and since that run game is still not established. Not sure any of them will top 10 so if you have to go with one, you are very much TD dependant.
The Jets meanwhile have a lot less to talk about.
Sam Darnold has a chance to make a statement but also has a chance to start his career in an ugly way. Rookies don’t often set the world on fire in week one and I can’t see Darnold breaking that trend, however, he’s still going to score more than Mariota did this week.
Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunea look to be the top pass-catching options and since there’s not much else right now both could be double-digit plays. I’ve liked Anderson this year since he’s a WR1 on a team with a throwing QB who is going to have to throw often due to game script. Both have a high ceiling and while Enunwa has a low floor, if you’re 10 behind he may just be able to rescue you.
The running game for the Jets could be key. Both Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell will have relevance this week while Darnold beds in but how the split will play out is anybody's guess. Both may struggle to make 10 but there’s a chance one of them does and with his draft position a number of people may be relying on Crowell going beyond 10 points. Players swapping systems don’t always start quickly and I’m a little concerned for Crowell that Powell may be the week 1 play but honestly, toss a coin, it’ll give you as much of an idea as I have!
The defence is not an advisable play but I still can’t see them doing worse than the Saints or the Chargers did this weekend. I can’t even remember who is kicking for them nowadays but unless Janikowski has found a Jets outfit that person should be ok.
Rams vs Raiders
In Britain, a Ram Raid means quickly destroying something, stealing what you want from it and getting out of there quickly. With that in mind, this game may be able to use that as a narrative.
The Rams defence is a scary proposition so long as it has had the time and work to develop chemistry. The Raiders are certainly “experienced” but they do not have youth, pace or strength on their side. I’m expecting the Rams DST to hit double figures and top most of the DST that have gone so far.
Jared Goff is going to have to be my saviour in a lot of leagues but I drafted him for a reason. He has a lot of weapons, last season he got it together and when you’re not sure how the targets are going to be shared the one constant is the passer. With the Raiders defence being a mess and now Mack-less Goff may well run riot. I’ll be disappointed if he scores less than 24.
This, of course, means his receivers will be in line for good scores too. The issue with Cooks, Kupp and Woods is going to be who gets the big plays, the TDs, and the most receptions. With no data available with the three together it’s hard to know but they all have a case for being the guy to save your week. Cooks is the one I would have the most confidence in but with the way fantasy can go, watch Gerald Everett get 2 TDs...
Todd Gurley should be a monster. I made similar statements about DJ, Zeke, and Hunt but really none of them was so either Gurley is going to follow them or break that pattern. The latter seems more likely against this defence and with how good the offence looked last year. It’s not a given, but surely he has to score more than 20.
The Raiders shouldn’t take long to explain. If you’re relying on their defence I’d look towards next week. I’m not convinced they are going to see the Red zone enough to make Jordy Nelson relevant. Jared Cook and whatever other receivers they have not named Cooper may be in the same boat.
Derek Carr may well get picked off by this defence, especially if his receivers aren’t in tune but he should at least be throwing a lot due to game script. Amari Cooper will probably end up with the bulk of those targets, his value depends on if he can catch them. History dictates he won’t but we need 2018 data to really know. Cooper may well get 10 to 15 points so he should still help some people.
Now, this may be controversial but I can’t see Marshawn Lynch topping 6 points. The Rams should really hold him in check and with them likely to be chasing the game it’ll be all on Cooper and a mix of the other receivers. Doug Martin just generally will not be relevant m, perhaps ever.
You may want Greg the Leg on your team if the game goes the way it should, while the Raiders kicker is a fade.
Hopefully, that’s enough to give you an idea of what chance you stand this Monday. Anyone behind by 50 or more is only going to have a chance with Stafford/Goff and Gurley. There’s a number of ways a 10-20 point gap might get reeled in whether that be in your favour or against you. All I can say is good luck.
Lions vs Jets
The Lions improvements this offseason have been pretty decent, getting a handy running back combination, defensive-minded coach and dropping Eric Ebron like he drops passes.
Their Defence was a very popular streaming option and against rookie Sam Darnold you would expect a few turnovers. They should be good for 10-15 points in my eyes.
Matt Stafford was briefly the highest paid player in football (He’s now probably 20th) and I’ve tipped him to be Mr Consistent this year and be a top 10QB. With this in mind, I think he’s a low 20s scorer this week against a newly formed, rather untried Jets defence. He has the weapons and the talent to go higher, but if he’s all you have left and you’re 30 behind I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are often great to own as they always seem to end the season within a few spots of each other. However, it’s weekly the touchdowns that determine who is on top. It’s hard to second guess between the two but if you own either of them you’re likely to get over 10points.
Kenny Golladay may be in line to get some of the targets previously aimed at the Tight End although Luke Willson will still attract some of them. If you’re behind by double digits and either of these two is all you have left you are basically willing on a touchdown. It’s unlikely but not impossible.
A quick note on kickers. Get them out of your league. They’re seriously hard to predict and just create a mess! Joking aside Prater is still good.
The running game is going to be much harder to predict. Blount could start out as the 1st down back and get goal-line work. Riddick should remain the pass catcher but with a lot of his targets looking likely to go elsewhere he’s not going to be a saviour. The joker in the pack here is Kerryon Johnson and how will he be used. In pre-season, he’s not been used like a bell cow or even like a player that’s going to get a big role. However, that’s where his draft position and talent would suggest he will end up, the question is will week one to that way. I’ve steered clear for week one since Blount and Riddick are capable of carrying the bulk while he gets more settled and since that run game is still not established. Not sure any of them will top 10 so if you have to go with one, you are very much TD dependant.
The Jets meanwhile have a lot less to talk about.
Sam Darnold has a chance to make a statement but also has a chance to start his career in an ugly way. Rookies don’t often set the world on fire in week one and I can’t see Darnold breaking that trend, however, he’s still going to score more than Mariota did this week.
Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunea look to be the top pass-catching options and since there’s not much else right now both could be double-digit plays. I’ve liked Anderson this year since he’s a WR1 on a team with a throwing QB who is going to have to throw often due to game script. Both have a high ceiling and while Enunwa has a low floor, if you’re 10 behind he may just be able to rescue you.
The running game for the Jets could be key. Both Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell will have relevance this week while Darnold beds in but how the split will play out is anybody's guess. Both may struggle to make 10 but there’s a chance one of them does and with his draft position a number of people may be relying on Crowell going beyond 10 points. Players swapping systems don’t always start quickly and I’m a little concerned for Crowell that Powell may be the week 1 play but honestly, toss a coin, it’ll give you as much of an idea as I have!
The defence is not an advisable play but I still can’t see them doing worse than the Saints or the Chargers did this weekend. I can’t even remember who is kicking for them nowadays but unless Janikowski has found a Jets outfit that person should be ok.
Rams vs Raiders
In Britain, a Ram Raid means quickly destroying something, stealing what you want from it and getting out of there quickly. With that in mind, this game may be able to use that as a narrative.
The Rams defence is a scary proposition so long as it has had the time and work to develop chemistry. The Raiders are certainly “experienced” but they do not have youth, pace or strength on their side. I’m expecting the Rams DST to hit double figures and top most of the DST that have gone so far.
Jared Goff is going to have to be my saviour in a lot of leagues but I drafted him for a reason. He has a lot of weapons, last season he got it together and when you’re not sure how the targets are going to be shared the one constant is the passer. With the Raiders defence being a mess and now Mack-less Goff may well run riot. I’ll be disappointed if he scores less than 24.
This, of course, means his receivers will be in line for good scores too. The issue with Cooks, Kupp and Woods is going to be who gets the big plays, the TDs, and the most receptions. With no data available with the three together it’s hard to know but they all have a case for being the guy to save your week. Cooks is the one I would have the most confidence in but with the way fantasy can go, watch Gerald Everett get 2 TDs...
Todd Gurley should be a monster. I made similar statements about DJ, Zeke, and Hunt but really none of them was so either Gurley is going to follow them or break that pattern. The latter seems more likely against this defence and with how good the offence looked last year. It’s not a given, but surely he has to score more than 20.
The Raiders shouldn’t take long to explain. If you’re relying on their defence I’d look towards next week. I’m not convinced they are going to see the Red zone enough to make Jordy Nelson relevant. Jared Cook and whatever other receivers they have not named Cooper may be in the same boat.
Derek Carr may well get picked off by this defence, especially if his receivers aren’t in tune but he should at least be throwing a lot due to game script. Amari Cooper will probably end up with the bulk of those targets, his value depends on if he can catch them. History dictates he won’t but we need 2018 data to really know. Cooper may well get 10 to 15 points so he should still help some people.
Now, this may be controversial but I can’t see Marshawn Lynch topping 6 points. The Rams should really hold him in check and with them likely to be chasing the game it’ll be all on Cooper and a mix of the other receivers. Doug Martin just generally will not be relevant m, perhaps ever.
You may want Greg the Leg on your team if the game goes the way it should, while the Raiders kicker is a fade.
Hopefully, that’s enough to give you an idea of what chance you stand this Monday. Anyone behind by 50 or more is only going to have a chance with Stafford/Goff and Gurley. There’s a number of ways a 10-20 point gap might get reeled in whether that be in your favour or against you. All I can say is good luck.
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