Week 1 Thoughts

We've made it through the off-season and the pre-season, it's time for the some real football, real analysis and actual content. Hurrah. Here at the Fantasy Thinker expect a few opinions, a few stats, a few quirky moments and a few links and references to other great content. 

Good thing I didn’t give any tips for Thursday night as they were all wrong. I felt Corey Clement would be the guy to own for the Eagles and that Matt Ryan would be the guy for Atlanta... Turned out it was Julio and Ajayi. Proof is it was needed that you can overthink it.

But onto the weekend and I’m going to highlight a few people at each position at different levels to consider getting on your roster. That being said considering my thoughts for the Thursday night game, I’m starting from behind.

Quarterback:
The Must Start - Drew Brees, NO
Streamers will be the most important thing to read but for those looking to DFS or with some options and want a safe option then my must start if you own him in week 1 is Drew Brees. With Ingram out and only Kamara and Gillislee on the roster at running back, the Saints are going to be passing the ball a lot. Thomas, Meredith, Ginn, Watson should see a lot of the ball and Brees has proven year on year that his accuracy and numbers will add up. The Bucs have made moves on their defence but the Saints will be a tough start and with Fitzpatrick starting that defence may be seeing the field a lot.

The Flexy Option - Marcus Mariota, TEN
A lot of people have called Tyrod Taylor here and I am very much on board with that, but with so many articles already out there on the Browns QB I’m going to go for another alternative at the same level. Mariota is still coming back from the leg fracture which clearly affected him last year and with more experience for Corey Davis, Rishard Matthews back in the team and Delanie Walker looking set to start his weapons look set and against the Dolphins who have lost the likes of Suh and Timmons, there’s a low resistance path to the end zone. Mariota may well be a new player this year and is a real bounce back candidate here.

The Deep Dive - Sam Bradford, ARI
If you have Carson Wentz and need to stream early then there’s still players out there. Keenum, Bortles and Tannehill could easily have been choices here but I’m going to put a spotlight on Sam Bradford while he’s healthy and the Cardinals starter. In an offence with David Johnson looking to get 1000 receiving yards, the fountain of youth advert that is Larry Fitzgerald and some young talent coming through in the receiving positions the pieces are there. The Redskins aren’t an exciting defence and you need more than Josh Norman to stop a passing game. In his last 17 games over the last 2 seasons for Minnesota he’s thrown for over 4000 yards and has a QB rating just a shade over 100 with 23 TDs thrown in there for good measure.  He’s never been a bad QB, just easily forgotten.


Running Back:
The Must Start - David Johnson, ARI
Considering this section may be best for DFS plays I’ll pick a Sunday game and go with DJ. Washington were dead last against the run last year and with a back to health DJ is an exciting prospect. I could go on but really with Bell not turning up. Zeke missing his centre, Gurley not beating Saturday, Cook on a snap count, Kamara with thoughts in the stratosphere and Hunt playing the Chargers, he’s why I’d call the safest elite play.

The Flexy Option - Duke Johnson, CLE
In theory Carlos Hyde may be the option in standard leagues but In PPR i think I want the passing down back for the Browns vs a weakened Steelers defence in a week full of turmoil for my team. With a new 3yr contract, Nick Chubb not seemingly ready and Hyde probably doing the ground work it opens up Duke nicely. When you add in a snap counted Josh Gordon, a rookie at WR3 meaning you only have Landry and Njoku, the passing volume is definitely there.
EDIT: Having seen the weather report in Cleveland I'd actually look to fade players in the game. Another possibly Flexy play would be Issiah Crowell since the Lions run defence isn't stellar and with Darnold on debut they should lean on the RB a lot. 

The Longer Shot - Latavious Murray, MIN
I could have gone Gillislee but having not had long with that offence and Drew Brees at QB I’m tempering expectations. That said, Murray should be a solid play against the 49ers with Cook on a snap count. They won’t rush their star man back in a hurry and that means Murray should be favourite to get the ball at the goal line and get the higher volume. The 49ers aren’t exactly there yet when it comes to defence so it’s a favourable matchup.

The Deep Dive - Jeremy Hill, NE
If Murray is owned my long shot is Jeremy Hill. Much maligned (especially by me) the former Bengal may well do what Gillislee did last year. Have an incredible week 1 for the Patriots while all their other options were down and then never be seen again. But while this is week 1, Burkhead and Michel are returning from injuries and not needing to be rushed, the stage is set for Hill to get quite a bit of volume, especially at the goal line again. With White in the old Lewis role he takes up the Blount roll which was so effective in years gone by.


Wide receivers:
The Must Start - Keenan Allen, LAC
He’s been one of my guys this off season in drafts and his week one matchup is too tasty to ignore. The Chiefs defence looks closer the being 32nd than being 30th. Rivers and Allen could potentially start the season with fireworks. With Gates still settling back into loving again there’s more red-zone work in game 1 so I’m hoping for a monster.

The Flexy Option - Keelan Cole, JAX
This pick will make my Jags fan wife happy but in a matchup against the Giants who were 30th vs the Pass it’s hard to ignore the guy who I expect to end up as the Jags number one option. I get the impression Marquise Lee going down could be the best thing to happen to the Jags this off season.

The Longer Shot - John Ross, CIN
I eluded to Brees and playing any of his receivers this week earlier otherwise this would have been Cam Meredith, however John Ross is a guy who I want to quickly talk about. The former first rounder finally looks to have shaken his injury concerns and should be the WR2 the Bengals have been desperate for. He has a great matchup vs Indy to start off and his speed is going to cause that shaky defence plenty of problems.

The Deep Dive - John Brown, BAL
Honestly, the WR2 of any team playing the Bills should have relevance each week. John Brown has always been a pretty decent football player when he plays, the issue of course is getting him fit and able to play. While he seems to be fit and active he’s worth taking a punt on if you’re looking a bit stuck in a deep or multi-flex league.

Tight Ends:

The Must Start – Rob Gronkowski, NE

With New England missing so many receivers it looks like they are going to rely heavily on Gronk so he should be a smart play every week as you’d expect. I don’t feel I need to go on here.

The Longer Shot – David Njoku, CLE

Likely to be taken in most leagues but if you have him he should be a great start. With Josh Gordon likely to be on a snap count at this stage and Callaway still feeling his way in you have Landry, Njoku and the RBs catching the ball. The Steelers defence as I eluded to before don’t seem as good as last year and I can see Njoku making a big mark.
EDIT: Again, I may now fade due to the weather so as an alternative I'll add Ricky Seals-Jones and Charles Clay as options here. Both have great TE matchups and could be key receivers for their teams.

The Deep Dive – Ben Watson, NO

ASJ, Jesse James and Nick Vannett would all be good choices in this section but when you have a Tight End, mostly undrafted, playing against one of the worst pass defences from last year and Drew Brees throwing him the ball, you have to take notice. They won’t want to burn out Kamara but with Gillislee being the only other option the ball will be spread around and if you need a deep play, Watson should be a solid choice.