2018 Bye Week Analysis

With the schedule now released I thought this might be a decent time to talk about one of the more difficult fantasy football subjects. Bye Weeks!

Some people prefer to punt a week, some plan their draft carefully to avoid conflicts and others accept that unless you have clashes in early week, the waiver wire and trades will probably mean you have a different roster when the heavy bye weeks come.

I’m in the school of thought that you try to avoid having your top 3 round picks on the same bye week but the rest of your squad should be solved via the waiver wire and trades. With this in mind I’m going to highlight a few of the combinations to avoid based on bye week and very, very early ADP predictions. Also those ADP positions don’t include rookies so you have the likes of Barkley to fit in later.

2018 Bye Weeks:

Week	Teams
Week 4	CAR	WAS
Week 5	CHI	TB
Week 6	DET	NO
Week 7	GB	PIT	OAK	SEA
Week 8	ATL	DAL	LAC	TEN
Week 9	ARI	CIN	IND	JAX	NYG	PHI
Week 10	BAL	DEN	HOU	MIN
Week 11	BUF	CLE	MIA	NE	NYJ	SF
Week 12	KC	LAR

Week 4:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
21	McCaffrey	RB	CAR	Wk4	2nd Round

No real clashed here as only Christian McCaffrey currently falls into the category where you want to avoid conflicts. Early bye weeks can become decent trade targets in the middle weeks so always bare that in mind.

Week 5:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
16	Howard	RB	CHI	Wk5	2nd Round
22	Evans	WR	TB	Wk5	2nd Round
42	Robinson	WR	CHI	Wk5	4th Round

In addition to the 3 listed players, whoever becomes the RB1 for the Bucs might also cause some concerns. It is probably wise to avoid combining any 2 of these but I don’t think the problem is insurmountable. Should the Bucs end up drafting an RB in the first round (or picking up an RB1 option like CJ Anderson) then I’d avoid drafting that player and Howard together but roster construction might well prevent you from wanting to do that anyway.

Week 6:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
6	Kamara	RB	NO	Wk6	1st Round
13	M.Thomas	WR	NO	Wk6	1st/2nd Round
24	Ingram	RB	NO	Wk6	2nd/3rd Round

Because the Lions don’t really have a high round draft pick level player this combination shouldn’t pose too many difficulties. If you pick up Golden Tate (5^th Round) or Marvin Jones (7^th Round)  after picking Michael Thomas you might want to think about your WR options but by week 6 the waiver wire may well have enough talent to see you through around with your picks in between. Nobody should be drafting a Lions RB as their RB2, even if they pick up a talented rookie, so there shouldn’t be any conflicts with Ingram/Kamara.

Week 7:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
3	Bell	RB	PIT	Wk7	1st Round
4	Brown	WR	PIT	Wk7	1st Round
20	Adams	WR	GB	Wk7	2nd Round
25	Rodgers	QB	GB	Wk7	2nd/3rd Round
33	Baldwin	WR	SEA	Wk7	3rd Round
37	Cooper	WR	OAK	Wk7	3rd/4th Round
43	Wilson	QB	SEA	Wk7	4th Round

Now it starts to get interesting. By this point the waiver wire can get you out of the middle level conflicts but here we have some early round combinations where missing 2 superstars in the same week might cause you to punt it.

With Rodgers and Wilson you should have the waiver wire depth to stream the position and not lose too much. You will see a drop but the right choice should prevent any real damage, especially as other teams will choose to stream every week. I*t’s something to consider when constructing your roster in the draft as an early QB will dent to quality of your RBs and WRs. Also I’ve not included Jimmy Graham in this list since he’s not going to be drafted as a superstar this year and tight ends are more easily stream-able.

Bell being the only running back on this list makes any combination with him more palatable as you’re only reduced to your 2^nd and 3^rd options at each position but if your 1^st round pick is out you probably don’t want to be losing your 2^nd as well.

The wide receivers could pose a number of issues. Baldwin and Cooper should hopefully go late enough that you’ll have other early round players to take up the slack if you’ve picked them and another early rounder listed. However, a combination of 3 would almost certainly equal a punted week (Brown, Adams, Cooper/Baldwin) and similarly if you pair Bell with Adams and Cooper/Baldwin you’re basically out of week 7 barring some trade activity.

Also be careful with Juju Smith-Schuster. He’s predicted to go around the 7^th round but could be many teams’ WR2 or flex. If that is the case having Adams and Cooper/Baldwin will ruin your WR options for the week so always try to think ahead.

Week 8:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
2	Elliott	RB	DAL	Wk8	1st Round
10	M.Gordon	RB	LAC	Wk8	1st Round
14	Jones	WR	ATL	Wk8	2nd Round
15	Freeman	RB	ATL	Wk8	2nd Round
18	Allen	WR	LAC	Wk8	2nd Round
29	Henry	RB	TEN	Wk8	3rd Round

Week 8 is where it starts to get busier. Zeke + Allen or Gordon + Jones/Freeman could leave you struggling for big numbers in the week and if you end up with Henry as your RB2 then you’re probably toast.

Other combinations are unlikely but realistically picking 2 players from the same position in this group or somehow getting 3 is going to be fatal to that week. While Zeke and Allen isn’t ideal, you at least should only be down to your RB2+3 and WR2+3 and a flex to dig you out of the hole but you have to be sure when drafting, waiver wiring or trading that you’re going to need 5 decent options without week 8 byes, coming from later rounds.

Week 9:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
5	Johnson	RB	ARI	Wk9	1st Round
9	Fournette	RB	JAX	Wk9	1st Round
11	Beckham Jr	WR	NYG	Wk9	1st Round
19	Green	WR	CIN	Wk9	2nd Round
26	Mixon	RB	CIN	Wk9	3rd Round
30	Hilton	WR	IND	Wk9	3rd Round
34	Ajayi	RB	PHI	Wk9	3rd Round
36	Jeffrey	WR	PHI	Wk9	3rd/4th Round
41	Ertz	TE	PHI	Wk9	4th Round
46	Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	Wk9	4th Round

Week 9 is this years’ Bye-pocalypse. 6 teams are on bye and although the same number of teams are on bye in week 11, the quality of teams and the players involved make week 9 the one to keep a close eye on.

The one thing which helps is that only AJ Green is scheduled to fall in the 2^nd round so avoiding pairing him with DJ, Fournette or OBJ should mean you’re not completely up the creek without a paddle. It’s not impossible (especially in games with fewer teams) that you could get Fournette and OBJ in rounds 1 and 2. If that is the case you’d be advised to dodge the other players on this list and choose options you’re going to have available.

Here it’s the 3^rd and 4^th round choices where you’ll have to tread carefully. With any of those top 4 players, pairing them with your 3^rd or 4^th round pick is risky but not impossible to deal with. Simply put, avoid drafting two players for the same position in the opening 3 or 4 rounds with the same bye week if you can. If the draft falls in such a way that the value you’re getting is too good to ignore just pay attention in the immediately following rounds and make sure you’re going to have some good options for week 9 and you’ll be okay.

This is possibly the one week where it’s acceptable to pick everyone elite form these teams and punt the week. A waiver wire team for week 9 isn’t terrible. A team of Luck, DJ, Mixon, Green, Fitz, Agholor, Vinateri, Eagles for example would leave you with no option but to punt week 9 but quite a decent team for the other 15 weeks. People will have their own stand on this, I personally want to give myself a chance to win every week and keep the balance.

Week 10:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
7	Hopkins	WR	HOU	Wk10	1st Round
12	Cook	RB	MIN	Wk10	1st/2nd Round
27	Thielin	WR	MIN	Wk10	3rd Round
38	Miller	RB	HOU	Wk10	4th Round
40	Diggs	WR	MIN	Wk10	4th Round
44	Collins	RB	BAL	Wk10	4th Round
45	Watson	QB	HOU	Wk10	4th Round

If you avoid Alex Collins you only really have two teams to avoid combining in week 10. Houston and Minnesota both have valuable players and you could have some awkward decisions. Again, it helps that in the first 3 rounds it’s unlikely you’re going to get two of the three players so really this shouldn’t cause you too many problems.

Realistically it’s hard to imagine a combination that makes this difficult, but keep an eye on the ADP movements. A combination of Hopkins and Thielin as your WR1 and 2 could cause trouble depending on how your 2^nd round pick turns out. If you do take those 2 wide-outs you realistically can’t pick Miller or Collins in R4 and Diggs shouldn’t be picked with Thielin under any circumstance.

Week 11:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
17	McCoy	RB	BUF	Wk11	2nd Round
23	Gronkowski	TE	NE	Wk11	2nd Round
35	Hyde	RB	CLE	Wk11	3rd/4th Round
39	J.Gordon	WR	CLE	Wk11	4th Round
47	Brady	QB	NE	Wk11	4th Round
48	Landry	WR	CLE	Wk11	4th Round

Another week where 6 teams go missing but when two of them are the Dolphins and the Jets there’s not so much to worry about. When you also consider the 49ers haven’t got a top end draft pick just yet (although if you plan to have McKinnon as your RB 2 you’ll need to think about it) and that Shady is the only player of value for Buffalo you are looking at 2 teams.

Amazingly Cleveland are one of them with Hyde, Gordon and Landry but it’s unlikely Hyde will remain at his current ADP, whether he goes up or down will depend on the draft. However if you pick McCoy and then Hyde in the 3^rd you might want to dodge Brady and the Browns wide receivers. It’s an easy enough set of circumstances though. The New England pair are in positions where it is easy to stream your way out of trouble. With the position variance you shouldn’t have much to think about.

Week 12:

Players:

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Week	ADP Round
1	Gurley	RB	LAR	Wk12	1st Round
8	Hunt	RB	KC	Wk12	1st Round
28	Kelce	TE	KC	Wk12	3rd Round
31	Hill	WR	KC	Wk12	3rd Round
32	Cooks	WR	LAR	Wk12	3rd Round

And finally in week 12 we have Kansas City and the LA Rams following their game in week 10 in Mexico. Two high power offences with big weapons and high price tags in the draft. Here it really may be dependent on who you have as your 2^nd pick. Gurley and Hill or Hunt and Cooks would be awkward but not terminal.

Kelce doesn’t really need to feature in this equation and with the RBs being round 1 and the WRs being round 3 it’s a pretty easy set of circumstances.

So overall my tips are:

• Don’t draft 3 players with the same bye week in the first 5 rounds unless you intend to punt it.
• Only week 9 is really worth even considering punting but it’s barely worth it.
• Avoid having the same bye in rounds 1 and 2 if you can and especially if it’s the same position.
• If you have players you want to target later have an eye to avoiding picking two from the same week in advance of them.
• These ADPs are only the current numbers; it will change so keep looking for possible danger combinations.
• Watch out for a possible follow up article to this during the fantasy draft season.