What do the Bills do?

One question which will be answered early on draft day is what are the Bills going to do in their hunt for a Quarterback?

Having traded Tyrod Taylor and brought in AJ McCarron in Free Agency they are a prime candidate to draft a QB early. They traded with the Bengals to jump up to pick 12 from 21, giving up Cordy Glenn in the process. At 12 and with a number of teams above them very much in the QB market, they could be left without a lot of options if they chose to stay put.

But who are the trade candidates, how much will it cost and who are they trying to get a jump on? Also, who might their target be and how high do they need to jump to get their guy?

What do the Bills have?

In terms of player personnel, the answer is very little. They won’t want to trade away the remaining talents they have on defense and Shady doesn’t hold enough trade value compared to what offensive power he will give them.

As a result they only have their picks to work with and they are:

1.12 (12)

1.22 (22)

2.21 (53)

2.24 (56)

3.01 (65)

3.32 (96)

With 6 picks in the opening three rounds and two in the first they have some capital to play with. 

Who is above them?

 The first 12 picks of the draft currently look as follows:

Pick	Team	Picks in First 3 Rounds	QB Need?
1	CLE	5	Yes
2	NYG	4	Yes
3	NYJ	2	Yes
4	CLE	5	Yes
5	DEN	3	Maybe
6	IND	5	No
7	TB	2	No
8	CHI	2	No
9	SF	4	No
10	OAK	3	No
11	MIA	3	Yes
12	BUF	6	Yes

As you can see, it’s pretty congested when it comes to teams wanting QBs and when you look at the talent available; to me there are only 4 players who could fill the needs the Bills have right now. They can’t wait forever if it turns out McCarron isn’t going to work. The other teams do have a current starter who would see them through (apart from arguably the Jets although I do think McCown and Bridgewater would see them through just fine this season). However, the Giants, Jets and Browns will be looking to transition in the not too distant future although the Giants may be able to eke out Eli Manning a little longer when you consider their other roster needs.

So what options do they have?

#2 – New York Giants

Possible Requirement: 1.12, 1.22, 2.21

This would be a lot to give up to essentially have a choice of QBs but really if they have a specific one in mind this could be the only way to get their guy. The giants won’t be keen to drop back with the amount of glaring needs, especially all the way back to 12, but don’t be too quick to discount the two teams trading at some point.

The more likely method would be if the Browns trade up to 5 or 6 and use that plus more picks (possibly going into 2019) in order to make the jump. It really depends if there is only one guy and they are confident the Browns aren’t going to take them #1 overall.

I originally thought it was a slam-dunk that the Bills would work their way up to the #2 pick via perhaps Denver or Indianapolis to let them have a choice ahead of the Jets and still allow the Giants to pick Quentin Nelson who really is the guy they need. As time has passed and the middle trade has been barely mentioned, I’m no longer so sure. They’re going to make a move, that’s for sure, but a double move up to #2? It seems a long shot.

#4 – Cleveland Browns

Possible Requirement: 1.12, 1.22, 3.32

If the Browns go for a QB at #1 overall and are satisfied that Carlos Hyde is going to be their starter (or the Giants take Saquon Barkley at #2) then they may be open to trading pick 4 to get more picks. 

The Bills would become the most obvious trade partner and I think gaining two more firsts for their 4^th pick and getting an extra pick into the bargain might sway them. They can cope with the fall as they have a fair few positional needs and this draft is deep in many of those positions.

The issue here is, Cleveland would have taken a QB and the Jets will pick one up at #3 so you’re left with your 3^rd choice. That is so long at the Giants don’t decide to draft Eli Manning’s successor at #2. With 4 decent options to pick from it really depends how happy they are with their 3^rd or 4^th choice. They won’t know what other teams are doing so it will become very dynamic on the night, but with Denver waiting at 5 and tipped to go QB as well, there could be a deal done.

#5 – Denver Broncos

Possible Requirement: 1.12, 1.22

Denver signed Case Keenum on a 2 year deal this off season and in my eyes, he’s their starter for those 2 years and possibly a bit beyond as he is very much a solid quarterback. I don’t know if the Broncos just don’t rate the chances of getting a QB as good in future draft classes or they don’t think they’ll be picking this high again for a while but if they do go QB, that guy is in for a long wait.

This does open up the chance that they’ll go for a later QB they can spend two years building up and take the extra draft capital this year since their other needs are more spread out. The only caveat to this is I think if Barkley falls to them at 5 they will not pass that up considering they dropped CJ Anderson this off season.

Because of the Barkley position this trade would have to happen on the night and when you consider the teams in between the Broncos and Dolphins, there’s not a team there likely to choose a QB so the Bills would simply be making sure the Broncos don’t take their guy and at least give them one of the top 4 and possibly a choice between two of them.

#6 – Indianapolis Colts

#7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

#8 – Chicago Bears

Possible Requirement: 1.12, 1^st/2^nd/3^rd

The next three options would likely be the stepping stones to climbing into the top 4. Moving up in increments so the other team doesn’t fall back too far is going to be the way they can make moves look palatable from where they are in 12^th as it’s a long way to climb.

Since the Colts, Bucs, Bears, 49ers and Raiders have their QBs in place they are likely to look elsewhere so jumping to those positions wouldn’t really gain them anything beyond getting to choose ahead of the Dolphins.

The steps will need to happen quickly and considering the amount of variables and possible scenarios on draft night and the limited time between picks to make it happen, you have to wonder how feasible the two step approach is logistically unless this jump into the 6-8 range is done before the evening begins.

All 3 are possible partners, although I’d argue Tampa wouldn’t give up the pick early just in case Barkley falls to them at 7. If any of these three teams would rather trade down and get the extra picks though, they should be rubbing their hands.

#10 – Oakland Raiders

Possible Requirement: 1.12, 3.02

One cheeky option is to predict that the Browns, Jets and Broncos all take a QB and then the 4^th best guy falls since no other team has a QB as a high priority until you reach the Dolphins at #11. Now the Dolphins arguably need help in every position apart from maybe Wide Receiver but a QB will be on their mind and if a guy like Mayfield falls their way they might not pass that up.

If the Dolphins were to pick the 4^th option then it leaves the Bills looking at that 2^nd tier with Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph which may well require AJ McCarron to be the starter for a full season or for the rookie to get rushed into action if he doesn’t work. It’s a difficult scenario.

One option would be to avoid giving up too much and swapping with the Raiders to jump the Dolphins and prevent that scenario from playing out. If they fail to jump into the top 5 this could be the way to go unless there are still 2 guys out there they like.  

#12 – Stay Put

Possible Requirement – Patience

Realistically if they can’t find a route into the top 5 they may just choose to keep what they have a stay put. If the Dolphins go QB then so be it, there’s options and if the worst comes to the worst and they have to wait for a Jackson or a Rudolph they have the picks in position, they can take another decent talent high up the draft and they can give AJ McCarron a decent chance to prove himself.

They could have somebody fall to them and still have some decent capital behind them to cover multiple needs, but if the guy that falls wasn’t their preference it could be difficult.

They have options and I’m sure they’ll be busy ringing around all the teams above them to try and move up to where they want to be.

Everything might well depend on if the Giants pick a QB at #2 and if Barkley goes in the top 4, which suggests any action will need to be pre-planned and ready to go on the night. The logistical challenge and number of possible scenarios will give the GMs and owners some big headaches over the coming hours… but it’s going to make the draft a fantastic spectacle to watch!